焦炭日报：短期延续反弹-20260126

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the coke industry is a continuation of the rebound, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of coke is affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy guidance. Currently, the comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke are rising, and the overall supply - demand is weak. However, with a relatively stable downstream steel mill hot metal output, increasing coking losses, strong price - raising intentions of coking enterprises, and a warm macro - environment, the coke market is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of January 23, due to the expanding losses, the production enthusiasm of some small and medium - sized enterprises declined. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 0.36 tons to 81.45 tons, while the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 15.14 tons to 1012.35 tons, with a year - on - year decline of nearly 4% [1] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 66 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was - 51 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was - 8 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 103 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was - 11 yuan/ton [1] - Terminal demand remained in the off - season. Although the profits of steel mills rebounded slightly, the overall resumption of production enthusiasm on the supply side was still limited. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 78.68%, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 percentage points. The profitability rate increased by 0.86 percentage points to 40.69% week - on - week. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate slightly rebounded to 85.51%, and the daily average hot metal output increased slightly by 0.09 tons to 228.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65 tons [1] Upstream Coking Coal - This week, the coking coal inventory of coal mines increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 1177.71 tons, the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased to 803.24 tons, and the inventory of imported coking coal at ports continued to increase to 562.99 tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased to 2818.34 tons, still 15.87% lower year - on - year [2]