【冠通期货研究报告】螺纹日报：震荡整理-20260126

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current resumption of production on the supply - side of rebar is strong, and the demand - side is supported by pre - holiday winter stockpiling and shows resilience. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the recovery of terminal demand. The total and social inventories are at a low level year - on - year, and the overall inventory pressure is controllable, but the accumulation of factory inventories requires attention to the subsequent destocking rhythm. The low inventory and demand resilience support the price, but the large recovery of production last week suppresses the price to some extent. The raw material side shows a differentiated trend, with iron ore weakening and coking coal and coke strengthening. In the short term, pay attention to the support around the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, and maintain a bullish mindset [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its positions by 10,906 lots on Monday, and the trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 809,245 lots. The daily moving average stood above the short - term 5 - day moving average and the medium - term 30 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,140 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,160 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,143 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.29% [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's HRB400E 20mm rebar spot was quoted at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 137 yuan/ton to the spot price. The basis was still large, providing some support. There was a certain cost - effectiveness for winter stockpiling on the futures market [1] Fundamental Data - Supply - side: As of the week of January 22, the rebar production increased by 92,500 tons week - on - week to 1.9955 million tons, and increased by 254,200 tons year - on - year. The year - on - year increase in production this week was significant, indicating that steel mills' resumption of production momentum was accelerating, which would suppress prices in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether the capacity recovery intensity could be sustained [2] - Demand - side: The apparent demand increased significantly year - on - year but decreased slightly week - on - week. Winter stockpiling might have started. As of the week of January 22, the apparent demand data was 1.8552 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 48,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 686,100 tons. The overall demand increased significantly compared with last year, showing resilience. There was still support from pre - holiday winter stockpiling demand [2] - Inventory - side: The inventory decreased slightly, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory increasing. As of the week of January 22, the total inventory was 4.521 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 140,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 311,100 tons. The social inventory was 3.0512 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 77,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 433,700 tons. The factory inventory was 1.4898 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 63,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 122,600 tons. The total inventory increased week - on - week but was at a low level in the same period in recent years. The overall inventory pressure was controllable. The continuous accumulation of factory inventory indicated that the production recovery speed was faster than the demand digestion speed, and the inventory pressure at the steel mill end increased marginally. The social inventory increased slightly week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, indicating that the social inventory destocking effect this year was good, and the pressure in the circulation link was much smaller than that of the same period last year, which provided some support for the price [2][3] - Macro - aspect: The central bank released a moderately loose signal, and the Ministry of Finance emphasized that the expenditure intensity would only increase. However, due to the drag of real estate demand, the incremental demand was relatively limited macroscopically, but the loose cycle provided some support, and the demand ceiling determined the pressure [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The inventory is at a low level in the past three years, the supply - side has reduced production due to anti - involution, production capacity is strictly controlled, policies support demand, the post - holiday demand will marginally pick up, and the macro - expectation is loose [4] - Bearish factors: The post - Spring Festival inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, the destocking speed slows down, the blast furnace resumes production at an accelerated pace, the winter stockpiling demand is cautious, the real estate demand continues to decline, exports are restricted, and the economic recovery is weak [4]