烧碱日报：供需弱势出新低，跟踪生产企业减产情况-20260126

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is currently in a pattern of high inventory and high supply, with short - term prices remaining weak due to low - cost warehouse receipts and pre - holiday destocking pressure. However, beware of oversold rebounds, especially after April next year, and avoid excessive bearishness. Track the start - up of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises and the production cuts of caustic soda producers [3][4]. 3) Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - Over the weekend, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong continued to decline, with some orders negotiated on a case - by - case basis and actual orders down 10 - 20. The procurement volume and price from outside the province are low, providing little support to Shandong. The procurement price of alumina in the province dropped by 15 to 600 over the weekend [1]. - The caustic soda operating rate is 87.70% (+1.00%), and the weekly output is 86.30 tons (+1.00). The operating rate of the main downstream alumina is 85.18% (-0.65%), with a weekly output of 183.90 tons (-1.40) and port inventory of 16.80 (+3.20). The operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 56.54% (-2.22%), viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%), white cardboard is 74.37% (-6.30%), and broad - leaf pulp is 89.70% (-1.30) [1]. - China's caustic soda (converted to 100%) output in December 2025 was 4.217 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The cumulative output from January to December was 46.535 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5% [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will research, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030. - Multiple departments including the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest subsidy policy for small, medium and micro - enterprises, set up a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumer loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the financial department will strongly support employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2]. Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Caustic soda is in a high - inventory and high - supply pattern. Currently, the warehouse receipt cost is lower than the spot price. The short - term decline is due to low - cost warehouse receipts and pre - holiday destocking pressure. The traditional maintenance seasons for chlor - alkali enterprises are from March to May in spring and from September to October in autumn [3].