【冠通期货研究报告】玻璃日报：短期震荡-20260126

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The glass market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply side has an expectation of further contraction, but the real - estate demand has not improved. Pay attention to the trend near the pressure level and subsequent macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures Market: The glass main contract opened high and moved higher, with an intraday volatile and strong trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a tightening signal for short - term fluctuations. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average of the daily line, and the support is near the middle track line. The trading volume increased by 322,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 84,061 lots. The intraday high was 1092, the low was 1059, and the closing price was 1087, up 26 yuan/ton or 2.45% compared with the previous settlement price [1] - Spot Market: In North China, manufacturers' overall shipments are good due to mid - stream pick - up and pre - holiday stocking; in East China, the trading atmosphere has significantly slowed down, with weak purchasing enthusiasm and a strong wait - and - see atmosphere; in Central China, the situation is okay, with most prices raised by 40, and downstream purchases are rational; in South China, except for individual prices rising by 20, other enterprises remain stable [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China is 1010, and the basis is - 77 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0552 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The industry average start - up rate was 71.62%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%. There was no production line water - release or ignition this week, and the daily output remained stable [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.216 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 203,000 heavy boxes or 0.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.74%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 day compared with the previous period. This week, the downstream purchasing sentiment was average, and individual shipments were weak due to weather, resulting in an overall increase in inventory compared with the previous period [2] - Demand: The average number of order days for national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the deep - processing order trends in the north and south regions are differentiated. The executable days of orders in the south have slightly increased, and some orders can last for more than 20 days; the orders in the north and central regions have declined [2] - Profit: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.9 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [2][3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still some production line cold - repair plans before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to further contract. However, the real - estate development investment and capital availability this month have continued to decline year - on - year, and the completion and new construction are weak, with the real - estate demand still not improving. Overall, the real - estate data continues to decline, and the market's rigid demand is accelerating to weaken near the end of the month. A production line in Gansu was restarted and ignited today, and the anti - involution voice emerged again last week, with the sentiment strengthening and the market rebounding. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term. First, pay attention to the trend near the pressure level. Subsequently, pay attention to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]