热卷日报：震荡整理-20260126

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply of hot-rolled coils is contracting, and the demand is resilient. The overall supply and demand are in a tight balance. Pre-holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for the current demand. The social inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the pressure on the factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has improved marginally, but the year-on-year inventory is still relatively high. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post-holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. In general, the tight balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support the price. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of the post-holiday demand recovery. Technically, in the short term, attention should be paid to the support near the 5-day and 30-day moving averages, and a bullish view should be maintained [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures Price: On Monday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 27,500 lots, and the trading volume was 391,114 lots, which was higher than the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,298 yuan, the high was 3,320 yuan, and it fluctuated within the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it stood above the 5-day and 30-day moving averages. If it holds steady, the probability of continued strengthening in the short and medium term is relatively high. It closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.12% [1] - Spot Price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The spot-futures basis was -2 yuan, and the futures were slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month-on-month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year-on-year. The output decreased month-on-month and significantly year-on-year, reflecting that the capacity release of steel mills has converged, which may be affected by factors such as maintenance arrangements and profit fluctuations, supporting the price [4] - Demand: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year-on-year. The demand decreased slightly month-on-month but maintained growth year-on-year. Pre-holiday stockpiling supported the demand, and the overall demand was relatively resilient [4] - Inventory: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons week-on-week to 3.5778 million tons (the social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons week-on-week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons). The year-on-year increase was 212,700 tons (the social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year-on-year, and the factory inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year-on-year). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The year-on-year increase reflected that the inventory accumulation speed this year was slightly faster than last year, and the overall risk was controllable [4] - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Decrease in supply output, expectation of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("15th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - Bearish Factors: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]