华宝期货有色金属周报-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum: Macro funds' bullish sentiment on prices remains, but environmental controls and bad weather have slowed the inventory accumulation mid - week. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term. Attention should be paid to the development of macro events and downstream feedback [12]. - Zinc: Affected by the volatility of non - ferrous metals, zinc prices are relatively strong. In the medium - and long - term, the supply increase exerts pressure on the upside, but it will take time to materialize. Zinc prices will run at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events and inventory trends at home and abroad [14]. - Tin: Tin prices are at a high level, and it is advisable to avoid participation in the short term [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: It will fluctuate in a high - level range, with a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". Policy expectations and supply disruptions support the price bottom [16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Colorful Weekly Market Review - Futures and Spot Prices: The report shows the closing prices, weekly changes, and weekly price changes of the main futures contracts and spot prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and nickel from January 16th to January 23rd, 2026. For example, the main copper futures contract (CU2603) rose 0.57%, while the average copper spot price in Shanghai Wumaohu decreased 0.80% [9]. 3.2 02 This Week's Non - Ferrous Market Forecast - Aluminum: Macro factors such as geopolitical frictions and tariff uncertainties put pressure on the US dollar. On the fundamental side, some northern mining areas have staged production cuts due to weather, and the domestic ore price is expected to remain stable. The overall aluminum processing industry shows a pattern of stable operation with local fluctuations. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term [12]. - Zinc: SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price remained flat, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased. The supply of domestic zinc concentrates continues to weaken, and the overall supply - demand pattern in February is expected to remain unchanged. The galvanizing industry shows a "first - up - then - down" trend. Zinc prices will run at a high level in the short term [14]. - Tin: In December 2025, China's tin concentrate imports increased. The smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi are operating at a high level, but there is limited room for further improvement. The demand is stable, and the market is optimistic about the semiconductor and new - energy vehicle industries after the festival. Tin prices are at a high level, and short - term participation should be avoided [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: Last week, the lithium carbonate market rose strongly. The supply side is contracting comprehensively, the demand side has kinetic energy conversion and prominent structural contradictions, the inventory structure has deteriorated significantly, and the profit structure has prominent contradictions. It will fluctuate in a high - level range, with a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality" [16]. 3.3 03 Variety Data 3.3.1 Aluminum - Bauxite: The prices of domestic high - and low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week; the average price index of imported bauxite decreased. The port arrival volume increased, while the departure volume decreased [21][24]. - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan decreased, the full cost decreased, and the profit in Shanxi increased [27]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total cost decreased, and the regional price difference increased. The downstream processing industry's overall operating rate showed a mixed trend, with some rising and some remaining stable. The inventory in the bonded area decreased, the social inventory increased, and the inventory in the futures exchange also changed [29][36][41]. - Spot and Basis: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum decreased week - on - week, and the monthly spread also changed [47][48]. 3.3.2 Zinc - Zinc Concentrate: The price of domestic zinc concentrate decreased, the domestic processing fee remained unchanged, and the imported processing fee decreased. The enterprise production profit decreased, the import loss increased, and the imported zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang increased [57][60]. - Refined Zinc: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, the bonded area inventory remained unchanged, the inventory in the futures exchange changed [63]. - Galvanizing: The output and operating rate increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventories increased [67]. - Basis and Monthly Spread: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and the monthly spread changed [71][75]. 3.3.3 Tin - Refined Tin: The combined output and operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increased [82]. - Tin Ingot Inventory: The SHFE tin ingot inventory and the Chinese regional social inventory increased [85]. - Tin Concentrate Processing Fee: The processing fees in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week and increased year - on - year [88]. - Tin Ore Import Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss level increased [89]. - Spot Price: The average prices in different regions increased [95]. 3.3.4 Lithium Carbonate - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main contract increased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest increased, and the basis decreased significantly [98]. - Supply Side: The overall operating rate and output decreased, with significant declines in the lithium - spodumene and recycling - material routes [100][105]. - Demand Side: The cathode material industry generally increased production and accumulated inventory, and the demand transmission was blocked. The total demand on the terminal side was under pressure, but energy storage showed strong performance [113][118]. - Inventory: The total inventory decreased slightly, the smelters and downstream accumulated inventory, and the social inventory increased [119]. - Cost and Profit: The raw - material market showed a differentiated trend, with overseas lithium - spodumene prices rising slightly and domestic lithium - ore prices generally falling back. The production and import profits were differentiated, and the delivery profit improved but was still under pressure [126][129].