南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告：巴西产区逐渐收获，阿根廷土墒继续下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Brazilian soybean harvest progress has reached 2.3%, with the rest of the crops in various growth stages. The soil moisture in the central - western and southern core producing areas is generally good, ensuring a record - high yield expectation. In contrast, the Argentine soybean sowing is in its final stage, with the sowing progress advancing 2.3% to 96.2% but still 2 - 3% lower than last year. Rainfall restricts operations in the northern agricultural areas, and the soil moisture and crop conditions are deteriorating [1][2] Summary of Each Section 1. Brazil's Current Situation - Overall Progress: The soybean harvest progress is 2.3%, with 2.3% in the seedling stage, 18.3% in the vegetative growth stage, 17.3% in the flowering stage, 53.6% in the pod - filling stage, and 8.1% in the maturity stage [1] - Regional Conditions - Mato Grosso: The harvest rate is 13.88%, an increase of 7.19% from last week, higher than the same period in 2025 (4.38%) and the five - year average (5.61%). The alternating dry and sunny weather is conducive to the harvest, and the initial harvest yield is expected to be good [1] - Goias: Harvest mainly starts in the irrigated areas. Frequent rainfall benefits crop growth but slows down the natural maturity and harvest progress in the late growth stage [1] - Mato Grosso do Sul: Harvest is carried out in low - lying areas, with an overall excellent and good rate of 85.7% [1] - Minas Gerais: The first batch of irrigated areas starts the harvest, and the harvested part has a good yield. Most other areas in the pod - filling stage have good crop conditions [1] - Parana: Rainfall benefits crop growth but delays the harvest and maturity progress in some areas [1] - Rio Grande do Sul: The rainfall is not abundant but frequent, which helps crop growth. The subsequent rainfall may continue until February [1] 2. Argentina's Current Situation - Sowing Progress: The sowing progress has advanced 2.3% to 96.2%, entering the final stage, but it is 2 - 3% lower than last year. Rainfall restricts operations in the northern agricultural areas [2] - Crop and Soil Conditions: Due to water shortages in southern Cordoba and western Buenos Aires, the proportion of good - quality crops has decreased by 9% to 87% month - on - month, and the proportion of good - quality soil moisture has decreased by 6% to 68% month - on - month. About 15% of the first - season soybeans in the two core producing areas have entered the critical growth stage and are in urgent need of water. There are also pest problems and difficulties in ridge - closing in some fields [2] - Future Situation: Most corn and soybean producing areas will continue to be dry [2] 3. International Soybean Annual Focus Points - January: U.S. soybean export volume, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [57] - February: U.S. export volume, Chinese import volume, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [57] - March: Brazilian export volume, South American production, and U.S. sowing area [57] - April: South American production, U.S. sowing area, and Brazilian export volume [57] - May: U.S. sowing area, Chinese sowing area, and Brazilian export volume [57] - June: U.S. yield per unit area and Brazilian export volume [57] - July - September: U.S. yield per unit area [57] - October: U.S. yield per unit area, production, and South American planting area [57] - November: U.S. production and South American planting area [57] - December: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. export volume [57] 4. Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - Growth Cycle: Includes the planting period (sowing - germination and emergence), flowering period, growth period (pod - setting, pod - filling and grain - filling), and harvest period [65] - Weather Requirements - Planting Period: The average daily temperature of the 5 - cm soil layer should reach 10 - 12°C at the initial sowing stage. The suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the water content should be maintained at 60% - 70% [65] - Flowering Period: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80% [65] - Growth Period: The suitable growth temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be maintained at about 70% [65] - Harvest Period: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the relative air humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil humidity should be maintained at 40% - 50% of the field water - holding capacity [65] - Disaster Risks: Include floods, extreme droughts, continuous rainfall, storms, heatwaves, and pests at different growth stages [65]