Changjiang Securities·2026-01-26 11:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - Anta's retail performance is under pressure, with the Anta brand experiencing a year-on-year decline in retail sales, while the FILA brand shows a moderate increase. Other brands have seen retail sales growth of 35%-40% year-on-year [2][6]. - The overall retail environment is expected to remain challenging, with operational profit margins (OPM) under pressure due to high marketing expenses in the Olympic year and a weak retail backdrop [8]. - FILA's brand restructuring is yielding positive results, with expected continued growth in 2026, although OPM may still face downward pressure due to ongoing channel adjustments [8]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 13 billion, 14 billion, and 15.1 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 14, and 13 times [8]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta brand retail sales have declined year-on-year, attributed to a warm winter affecting winter apparel sales and a late Spring Festival impacting children's clothing sales. However, discounting and inventory turnover ratios are expected to remain stable [8]. - FILA brand retail sales have shown a year-on-year increase, with stable discounting and inventory turnover ratios. The brand's restructuring efforts are beginning to show results, with positive growth anticipated in 2026 [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are as follows: 70.826 billion yuan for 2024, 79.384 billion yuan for 2025, 86.247 billion yuan for 2026, and 93.297 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting growth rates of 14%, 12%, 9%, and 8% respectively [10]. - Net profit forecasts are 11.927 billion yuan for 2024, 13.016 billion yuan for 2025, 14.028 billion yuan for 2026, and 15.123 billion yuan for 2027, with growth rates of 17%, 9%, 8%, and 8% respectively [10].