山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term safe - haven situation has shifted from trade - war concerns to rising geopolitical risks. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation support the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - Geopolitical risks are on the rise, such as the US aircraft carrier strike group's movement to the Middle East, Iran's warning, and Trump's statements regarding Canada's trade agreement and the Greenland deal [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, the US employment is weakening, with a slight increase in initial jobless claims. The Fed cut interest rates in December 2025 and may cut once in 2026. Market expectations suggest a low probability of a January 2026 rate cut, with the next possible cut in June [1]. - Regarding the commodity attribute, Poland's central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations from the hydrogen - energy platinum - based catalyst industry, and palladium has short - term demand resilience but long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show a short - term upward - trending oscillation, a medium - term high - level oscillation, and a long - term step - by - step upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - Price: International and domestic gold prices have increased. For example, the Comex gold active contract closed at $4983.10 per ounce, up 0.91% from the previous day and 8.30% from the previous week [2]. - Position and inventory: The positions of Comex gold, Shanghai gold futures, and gold T + D have changed, and the inventories of LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai gold futures have also shown some fluctuations [2]. 3.2 Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [4]. - Price: International and domestic silver prices have risen significantly. The Comex silver active contract closed at $103.26 per ounce, up 7.32% from the previous day and 14.80% from the previous week [4]. - Position and inventory: The positions of Comex silver, Shanghai silver futures, and silver T + D have changed, and the inventories of LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai silver futures have also been adjusted [4]. 3.3 Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. - Price: International and domestic platinum prices have increased. The NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2627.10 per ounce, up 5.98% from the previous day and 8.75% from the previous week [7]. - Position and inventory: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract has decreased slightly, and the inventory has also changed [7]. 3.4 Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [9]. - Price: International and domestic palladium prices have gone up. The NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1945.50 per ounce, up 3.79% from the previous day and 4.29% from the previous week [9]. - Position and inventory: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract has decreased slightly, and the inventory has changed [9]. 3.5 Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Monetary attribute: The Federal Reserve's interest rates, balance sheet, M2, and other indicators have changed. The US labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, and trade also show different trends [10][12]. - Safe - haven attribute: The geopolitical risk index and VIX index are monitored, reflecting the current geopolitical situation and market volatility [12]. - Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index and the exchange rate of the offshore RMB have changed, which have an impact on precious metals' prices [12]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest - rate ranges at each Federal Reserve meeting from 2026 to 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions [14].