苹果周报：临近春节备货，苹果出库加快-20260126

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Weekly Report: Approaching Spring Festival Stockpiling, Apple Outbound Speeds Up [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan - Industry: Apple Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The 5 - month contract price of apples is expected to be more likely to rise than fall. The reasons are that although the current national cold - storage apple inventory data shows a relatively low destocking rate, considering the late Spring Festival this year and the peak of apple sales is yet to come, the destocking rate may not be low. Also, the apple warehouse - receipt cost is high this season [14]. Group 4: Spot Analysis - This week, the Spring Festival stockpiling of late - Fuji apples in production areas improved slightly, with the outbound volume increasing month - on - month. Snowfall in some areas during the week slightly affected shipments. Most merchants are still packaging their self - stored goods for market, and the trading volume of farmers' goods has increased slightly, mainly low - priced or extreme - end products, with the overall trading volume still limited. The price of general - quality farmers' goods is stable or weak, and in some areas, farmers are eager to sell, leading to a slight price drop. In the sales areas, the number of incoming trucks decreased, the transit warehouses were severely congested, the customer flow was scarce, and the sales were slow [7]. - In Shandong, the overall outbound volume accelerated slightly, but snowfall affected the shipping speed in some areas. The number of customers inspecting goods in cold storage increased. The Spring Festival gift - box stockpiling has started. In Zhaoyuan and Penglai, third - grade apples were mainly sold, mostly in gift - box or small - bag packaging. In Qixia, some foreign - trade channels were looking for small - sized apples, and a small amount of third - grade apples were sold. In Yiyuan and Weihai, the number of merchants increased slightly, but the transactions were still average. In Penglai, the mainstream price of Grade 1 and 2 75 farmers' apples is around 3.0 - 3.6 yuan per jin, 4 - 4.5 yuan per jin for 80 Grade 1 and 2, and 1.3 - 2.5 yuan per jin for third - grade apples. In Qixia, the price of Grade 1 and 2 80 late - Fuji red - skinned farmers' apples is 3.5 - 4.5 yuan per jin, 2.2 - 2.5 yuan per jin for 75 general - grade farmers' apples, and 1.7 - 2 yuan per jin for 65 - 70 small apples [7]. - In Shaanxi, the de - stocking rate increased slightly month - on - month. The number of inquiring customers in Yan'an and Weinan increased, and customers were packaging their self - stored goods for shipment, with the shipping volume increasing compared to before. The transactions of farmers' goods were mainly high - quality general - grade and high - grade by - products. In Xianyang, the enthusiasm of merchants to find goods was not high, and the transactions were still light. Overall, the outbound volume in northern Shaanxi was better than that in southern Shaanxi. In Luochuan, the ex - warehouse price of farmers' semi - commercial apples above 70 is around 4.0 - 4.3 yuan per jin, 3.5 - 4 yuan per jin for general - grade apples above 70, and 2.2 yuan per jin for high - grade by - products. In Baishui, the price of high - quality general - grade farmers' apples starting from 75 is about 2.8 - 3.0 yuan per jin [7]. Group 5: Supply Analysis - As of January 22, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 48.01%, 2.11 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From January 15 - 21, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.77 percentage points, and the destocking rate was 14.06%. As the Spring Festival stockpiling stage began, the cold - storage outbound volume gradually increased [10]. - In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 49.93%, and it decreased by 1.44 percentage points this week. The cold - storage outbound volume in the production area increased slightly, mainly driven by Spring Festival stockpiling. The packaging volume of merchants in Shandong's cold storage was okay, but the cold - storage shipping volume this year was slightly lower than the same period last year. Some packaged goods were still stored [10]. - In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 45.71%, and it decreased by 1.98 percentage points this week. The number of cold - storage merchants' packaging was okay, and the shipping volume gradually increased. Traders still mainly packaged their self - stored goods and purchased a small amount from farmers because of the high defect rate of farmers' goods and high packaging costs [10]. - In Gansu, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 47.16%, and it decreased by 2.69 percentage points this week. The outbound situation in Gansu was good, and the packaging enthusiasm of traders was okay. High - quality goods had certain profits, while the packaging willingness for low - quality goods was general [10]. - In other areas, the overall outbound of paper - plus - film Fuji in Shanxi was stable. The e - commerce shipping volume in Yuncheng decreased slightly, and the sales speed of paper - plus - film Fuji slowed down slightly. The purchasing volume of market merchants in the northern production areas increased slightly. In Liaoning, the overall market was stable, with a relatively large number of merchants recently, mainly purchasing low - priced goods [10]. - It is predicted that during the Spring Festival stockpiling stage, the cold - storage packaging volume in production areas will increase, and the packaged goods will be gradually shipped to the market. It is expected that the cold - storage outbound volume will gradually increase next week [10]. - According to Steel Union data, as of January 21, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main production areas was 6.8278 million tons, a decrease of 218,800 tons from last week. The destocking speed continued to accelerate month - on - month but was lower than the same period last year [10]. Group 6: Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of incoming trucks in the morning decreased slightly compared to last week, with an average of about 23.6 trucks per day. The mainstream price of Shandong 80 late - Fuji in baskets is 3.3 - 4.4 yuan per jin, and 4.0 - 5.0 yuan per jin in boxes. The actual transaction price is based on quality. The price of Luochuan late - Fuji in baskets starting from 70 is 4.0 - 5.5 yuan per jin, and the price of Jingning late - Fuji in boxes starting from 70 is 4.5 - 6.5 yuan per jin. Recently, the market consumption was still average, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers decreased, there was pressure to digest the incoming trucks within a day, the congestion in transit warehouses increased, and high - quality Gansu goods were the main ones sold. Second - and third - level wholesalers purchased goods as needed [13]. - According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on January 22, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 7.93 yuan per kilogram, slightly rising from last Friday and at a high level compared to previous years [13]. - During the 2025 - 2026 acquisition season, the profit statistics of storage merchants for Qixia 80 Grade 1 and 2 apples were suspended [13]. Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: Go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and go short on the 10 - month contract on rallies [14]. - Arbitrage: Go long on the 5 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract [14]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Group 8: Weekly Data Tracking - Apple Supply and Demand: The report presents data on apple exports, planting area, consumption, production, and deep - processing volume from 2018 - 2023 [18]. - Inventory and Outbound: It shows the national and regional (Shandong, Shaanxi) cold - storage apple inventory, outbound volume, and their trends from 2017/18 - 2025/26 [10][21]. - Price Spreads and Basis: The report provides data on the basis of 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month contracts and the price spreads between 1 - 5, 5 - 10, and 10 - 1 contracts from 2019 - 2026 [26].