焦煤，低位区间震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Since mid - January, the coking coal futures have experienced a correction and are currently in a low - level range - bound pattern. This is due to the lack of direct policy support and the weak fundamentals of coking coal. However, winter storage and the expectation of coal mine shutdowns during the Spring Festival limit the downside space. In the absence of policy intervention, coking coal futures lack the momentum for a one - sided upward movement, but there is also strong resistance to further short - term declines. The main contract is expected to remain in a low - level range [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Futures: Since mid - January, the main contract of coking coal futures has fallen from around 1,250 yuan/ton to about 1,100 yuan/ton and then entered a range - bound state. In the past year, the upward movement of coking coal futures has mainly relied on industrial policies or macro - expectations. This year, in the absence of direct policy support, the market is mainly driven by fundamental factors [2][6]. - Spot: In January, the coking coal spot market performed well, with no obvious decline in the prices of mainstream coal types. As of January 23, the prices of some coal types such as Shanxi Linfen low - sulfur main coking coal, Shanxi Lvliang medium - sulfur main coking coal, and Meng 5 clean coal at Tangshan Port all increased month - on - month. Short - term winter storage and the expectation of coal mine shutdowns during the Spring Festival provided support, but in the long - term, the low downstream demand and the loose supply - demand contradiction of coking coal limit the continuous upward movement of coal prices [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Domestic coal mines maintained stable production before the Spring Festival. In terms of imports, the seaborne coal arrivals in the first two weeks of January decreased compared with December but increased by 13.8% year - on - year. The Mongolian coal imported by rail increased significantly in December last year. Although the daily vehicle - passing number at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased briefly in January, it gradually recovered in the middle of the month. As of January 23, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines in the country was 770,000 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase of 100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons [2][4]. - Demand: Since January, the multiple attempts to increase the price of coke have failed. Coking enterprises are suffering heavy losses, resulting in low production enthusiasm. The latest data shows that the profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is - 66 yuan/ton, and the total daily output of coke in independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants is 1,102,100 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase of 40 tons [4]. - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory within the statistical scope this week is 25.4473 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 383,800 tons, indicating a loose supply situation. The inventory accumulation mainly occurs in downstream independent coking plants, reflecting the ongoing winter storage demand, which supports the spot price [4].