国投期货农产品日报-20260126

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Zonglvyou: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ★★☆ [1] - Yumi: ★★★ [1] - Shengzhu: ★☆☆ [1] - Jidan: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The prices of domestic soybean futures are strong, and the spot market is stable. The supply is tight, but the policy auction has improved the marginal supply. The demand is expected to improve marginally, and the re - inflation of commodities has an overflow effect. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [2]. - After the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America becomes the main trading logic, the market has digested it. The harvest of new - season Brazilian soybeans is slow. China has completed a high proportion of soybean procurement for February, March, and April. The harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal may impact domestic soybean meal prices. Short - term soybean and soybean meal futures will continue to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - The supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil has improved marginally. Indonesia's plantation nationalization policy strengthens pricing power. The US biodiesel policy is favorable for US soybean oil prices. The re - inflation of commodities has an overflow effect. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [4]. - The uncertainty in the rapeseed market lies in the import end. The import cost of Canadian rapeseed has increased, boosting domestic rapeseed futures prices. The overall rapeseed market is expected to oscillate strongly, with rapeseed oil slightly stronger than rapeseed meal [6]. - The spot price of corn is stable. The snow in the Northeast has boosted the bullish sentiment, and the sales progress is slow. The inventory of the middle and lower reaches is low, and the pre - holiday replenishment demand has pushed up the price. The Dalian corn futures will oscillate in the short term [7]. - The spot price of pigs is weak, and the futures price has fallen with increased positions. After mid - January, the second - fattening before the Spring Festival has basically ended, and the industry will face accelerated slaughter. It is expected that the pig price will reach a low point in the first half of next year [8]. - The spot price of eggs is strong due to the decline in supply and pre - holiday food factory procurement. The strength of the spot has been transmitted to the near - month futures. There are signs of slower culling and better replenishment in the egg industry chain, which is not conducive to the strength of the far - month egg prices. In the short term, observe whether the pre - holiday spot price can be maintained, and in the medium - long term, consider buying on dips for the first - half - year contracts [9]. Summary by Directory Douyi - The domestic soybean futures price is strong with increased positions. The spot market is stable, supply is tight, but policy auctions improve marginal supply. Demand may improve marginally, and there is an overflow effect from commodity re - inflation. Short - term focus on policies and market sentiment [2] Doupo - After the market digested the South American bumper - harvest expectation, the new - season Brazilian soybean harvest is slow. China has completed a high proportion of soybean procurement. The harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal may impact domestic soybean meal prices. Short - term futures will oscillate at the bottom [3] Douyou and Zonglvyou - The supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil has improved marginally. Indonesia's policy strengthens pricing power. The US biodiesel policy is favorable for US soybean oil prices. There is an overflow effect from commodity re - inflation. Short - term focus on policies and market sentiment [4] Caipo and Caiyou - The uncertainty in the rapeseed market is at the import end. The import cost of Canadian rapeseed has increased, boosting domestic rapeseed futures prices. The overall rapeseed market is expected to oscillate strongly, with rapeseed oil slightly stronger than rapeseed meal [6] Yumi - The spot price of corn is stable. The snow in the Northeast has boosted the bullish sentiment, and the sales progress is slow. The inventory of the middle and lower reaches is low, and the pre - holiday replenishment demand has pushed up the price. The Dalian corn futures will oscillate in the short term [7] Shengzhu - The spot price of pigs is weak, and the futures price has fallen with increased positions. After mid - January, the second - fattening before the Spring Festival has basically ended, and the industry will face accelerated slaughter. It is expected that the pig price will reach a low point in the first half of next year [8] Jidan - The spot price of eggs is strong due to the decline in supply and pre - holiday food factory procurement. The strength of the spot has been transmitted to the near - month futures. There are signs of slower culling and better replenishment in the egg industry chain, which is not conducive to the strength of the far - month egg prices. In the short term, observe whether the pre - holiday spot price can be maintained, and in the medium - long term, consider buying on dips for the first - half - year contracts [9]