沥青周报：冠通期货研究报告-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is experiencing an upward trend, but there are potential risks due to geopolitical issues and seasonal factors. It is recommended to focus on the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries and adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy before March [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week-on-week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in recent years [3][21]. - In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month-on-month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year-on-year [3]. - This week, some local refineries in Shandong stopped producing asphalt, and the asphalt operating rate remained at a low level [3]. 3.2 Demand - As of the week of January 23, most of the operating rates of downstream industries of asphalt decreased. The operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 1 percentage point to 14% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather [3][31]. - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025 but was still negative [31]. - In 2025, from January to December, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025 [31]. - In 2025, from January to December, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2%, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [31]. 3.3 Market Price and Ratio - The asphalt/ crude oil ratio rose to 7.32 [13]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 3,090 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract fell to - 146 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [16]. 3.4 Inventory - As of the week of January 23, the inventory rate of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.6% week-on-week, and was near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [36]. 3.5 Shipment - As of the week of January 23, driven by international oil prices, the downstream procurement enthusiasm of marine fuel and coking increased. The shipment of low - sulfur asphalt in Northeast China was relatively large, and the national shipment volume increased by 1.82% to 227,700 tons week-on-week, at a moderately low level [26].