沪铜周报：冠通期货研究报告-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the market sentiment eased from the Greenland event in the macro - market last week, copper prices rebounded slightly today. Due to fundamental disturbances and the recurrence of macro - level sentiment, copper prices rose steadily and slightly last week. Affected by the sharp decline of the US dollar today, copper prices gapped up, but the upward trend of Shanghai copper before the Spring Festival is expected to be suppressed due to the weakening of the demand side [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 (Market Analysis) - Macro aspect: US President Trump announced a 10% tariff increase on imported goods from 8 European countries starting February 1, 2026, and to 25% starting June 1, to pressure negotiations on Greenland's sovereignty. After he declared not to use force on Greenland, market tensions eased. With the strengthening of the yen, the US dollar declined continuously during the week, supporting non - ferrous metal prices [3]. - Supply aspect: On Thursday, Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper mine in Chile stopped production due to a strike caused by the failure of collective bargaining between the largest union and the company. The mine's expected cathode copper production in 2025 was 29,000 - 32,000 tons. TC/RC fees remained weakly stable with a further downward trend. SMM estimated that China's electrolytic copper production in January would decrease by 14,500 tons month - on - month (a 1.23% decline) and increase by 156,300 tons year - on - year (a 14.78% increase). The start - up rate of scrap copper enterprises decreased, and the scrap copper market's supply and demand were affected [3]. - Demand aspect: As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. Approaching the Spring Festival and with high copper prices, most small and medium - sized enterprises started their holidays, with low procurement willingness for raw materials. The performance of new - energy vehicles at the terminal was poor, while there was a slight increase in traditional industries such as refrigerators and air conditioners [3]. 3.2沪铜价格走势 (Shanghai Copper Price Trend) - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly. The weekly high was 102,000 yuan/ton, the low was 99,210 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 2.77%, and the range increase/decrease was + 0.57% [5]. 3.3沪铜现货行情 (Shanghai Copper Spot Market) - As of January 26, the average spot premium/discount in East China was - 190 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 135 yuan/ton. Under the bearish sentiment of downstream enterprises, the spot was traded at a discount, and the sentiment is expected to remain unchanged in the short term [10]. 3.4伦铜价差结构 (LME Copper Spread Structure) - As of January 23, LME copper rose 0.43% during the week, closing at $12,980/ton, with a spot premium of - $59.5/ton [15]. 3.5铜精矿供给 (Copper Concentrate Supply) - In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a 7% month - on - month and 7.2% year - on - year increase. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 30.365 million physical tons, a 7.8% cumulative year - on - year increase. In January 2026, there were strikes and road blockades in some Chilean mines, which were later resolved [19]. 3.6废铜供给 (Scrap Copper Supply) - In December 2025, China imported 239,000 physical tons of copper scrap and waste, a 14.81% month - on - month and 9.88% year - on - year increase. Affected by policy changes and tax inspections, the supply and demand of the scrap copper market were affected [24]. 3.7冶炼厂费用 (Smelter Fees) - As of January 23, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $50/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 5.18 cents/pound. TC/RC fees remained weakly stable with a downward trend. The China Copper Smelters Purchasing Consortium (CSPT) announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026, and the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound [29]. 3.8精炼铜供给 (Refined Copper Supply) - In December 2025, SMM's China electrolytic copper production increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month (a 6.8% increase) and 7.54% year - on - year. From January to December 2025, the cumulative production increased by 1.372 million tons (an 11.38% increase). SMM estimated that the domestic electrolytic copper production in January 2026 would decrease by 14,500 tons month - on - month and increase by 156,300 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,000 tons, a 21.8% decrease compared to December 2024 [33]. 3.9表观需求 (Apparent Demand) - As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month [37]. 3.10下游消费 (Downstream Consumption) - Some copper rod enterprises have entered the holiday state, with a significant decline in the start - up rate. The copper foil market has no obvious fluctuations in transactions, with reduced new orders. Copper tube enterprises have increased low - price replenishment recently, and most small and medium - sized enterprises will start their holidays next week. The downstream demand for copper rods has begun to decline, and copper rod enterprises mainly maintain just - in - time inventory [41]. 3.11电网工程数据 (Power Grid Project Data) - As of the end of November 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a 17.1% year - on - year increase. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts (a 41.9% increase), wind power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts (a 22.4% increase), hydropower installed capacity was 440 million kilowatts (a 3% increase), and nuclear power installed capacity was 60 million kilowatts (a 7.6% increase) [45]. 3.12房地产基建数据 (Real Estate and Infrastructure Data) - In December 2025, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 93.99 million square meters, a 39.87% month - on - month increase and a 16.58% year - on - year decrease; the sales volume was 880.7 billion yuan, a 44.07% month - on - month increase and a 24.24% year - on - year decrease [51]. 3.13汽车/新能源汽车产业数据 (Automobile/New - Energy Automobile Industry Data) - The Passenger Car Association predicted that the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in January 2026 would be about 1.8 million, a 20.4% month - on - month decrease and a flat - to - slightly - increasing year - on - year. The retail sales of new - energy vehicles were expected to reach 800,000, but the retail penetration rate dropped to 44.4%. In 2026, the vehicle purchase tax changed from exemption to half - collection, and there were subsidy policies for vehicle replacement [57]. 3.14全球各主要交易所铜库存 (Copper Inventories in Major Global Exchanges) - As of January 23, LME copper inventory increased by 28,125 tons to 171,700 tons week - on - week (a 3.31% increase), and was 33.72% lower year - on - year. COMEX copper inventory was 562,600 tons, a 3.63% week - on - week increase and 473.67% higher year - on - year. On January 22, the combined copper spot inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 120,600 tons, still increasing. As of January 23, Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 146,800 tons, a 2.53% week - on - week increase, and cathode copper inventory was 225,900 tons, a 5.82% week - on - week increase [62][67].