近期市场有所回暖，持续性仍需观察

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [6]. Core Insights - Recent signs of recovery in certain cities' transaction volumes should not be hastily interpreted as a definitive market stabilization. The report highlights two types of policies that may influence the market: interest rate cuts and direct financial support for distressed entities [1][2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has introduced measures to enhance urban renewal policies, which include a flexible five-year transition period for revitalizing existing assets [3]. - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a narrowing decline in new housing sales for 2025, with a reported sales area of 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, and a sales value of 8.4 trillion yuan, down 12.6% [4]. Summary by Sections Market Recovery - Some core cities, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, have shown significant increases in second-hand housing transactions, with Shanghai's sales exceeding 16,000 units for three consecutive months and Shenzhen's sales reaching 4,000 units in January, reflecting a year-on-year decline narrowing to 9% [2]. Policy Impact - The report anticipates that the market's recovery may be influenced by several factors, including previous price declines leading to panic selling, preemptive demand due to the late timing of the Spring Festival, and a positive wealth effect from the stock market [2]. Sales and Construction Data - The report notes that the decline in new housing sales is expected to continue, with a projected decrease in new construction area by 20.4% in 2025, although the decline is slightly less than in 2024. The completion area is also expected to drop by 18.1% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment opportunities: high-quality developers with low historical burdens, commercial real estate operators benefiting from a "Matthew Effect," and real estate brokerage platforms that leverage scale and brand advantages [5].