战术性大类资产配置周度点评（20260125）：欧美地缘政治博弈加剧，建议低配美债-20260126

Group 1 - The report suggests a tactical underweight in US Treasuries due to the exacerbation of geopolitical tensions under the Trump administration, which negatively impacts US debt performance [1][14][15] - It recommends a tactical overweight in A/H shares, US stocks, and gold, while advising a lower allocation to oil [1][14][15] - The report highlights that 2026 is the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan in China, with expectations of expanded fiscal deficits and more proactive economic policies [14][15] Group 2 - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December 2025 and the stable appreciation of the RMB provide favorable conditions for monetary easing in early 2026 [14][15] - It notes that structural monetary policies may enhance the willingness of institutional investors to purchase bonds, despite an ongoing imbalance between financing demand and credit supply [14][15] - The report emphasizes that geopolitical uncertainties are likely to support gold prices, making it a recommended asset for overweighting [16][17] Group 3 - The report discusses the recent trend of European pension funds selling off US debt assets, citing concerns over the unpredictability of the current US government and rising national debt [11][12] - It mentions that the geopolitical landscape is shifting, which may lead to increased volatility in oil prices, suggesting a tactical underweight in oil [16][17] - The report provides a tactical asset allocation model, indicating a 45% allocation to equities, 45% to bonds, and 10% to commodities, with specific weightings for various asset classes [18][20]