资产配置全球跟踪 2026年1月第2期：资产概览：国际金银价格刷新历史记录

Asset Overview - International gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with gold surpassing $4,990 per ounce and silver closing at $103 per ounce, marking a significant increase in safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties and a weakening dollar [1][8]. Cross-Asset Analysis - The ongoing U.S.-Europe negotiations regarding Greenland and tariffs have triggered a "TACO" trading environment, leading to significant market volatility. The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.9% during the week, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [7][8]. - Commodities have outperformed equities and bonds, with precious metals leading the gains. The overall commodity index rose by 2.1%, while the CRB commodity index increased by 3.4% [8][34]. Equity Market Performance - The Brazilian IBOVESPA index surged by 8.5%, outperforming other global indices. In contrast, major developed market indices, including the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones, experienced slight declines of 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively [23][25]. - Emerging markets showed resilience, with the A-share market rising by 1.8%, particularly benefiting from small-cap and growth stocks [23][25]. Bond Market Insights - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bull flattening" trend, with the yield curve shifting downward. The 10-year yield decreased to 1.83%, while the 2-year yield fell to 1.40%, resulting in a narrowing of the 10Y-2Y spread [34][39]. - In contrast, U.S. Treasury yields showed a "bear flattening" pattern, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.24%. The market anticipates a stable interest rate path for 2026, with a potential rate hike in 2027 [34][39]. Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodities continued to rise, with significant gains in gold and silver prices, which have increased by 43.5% and 14.7% year-to-date, respectively [8][34]. - The U.S. dollar's decline has led to appreciation in major non-U.S. currencies, including the euro and yen, which rose by 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively [8][34].