Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical sentiments. For the oil market, the short - term fundamentals are weakening while the mid - term remains loosely pessimistic, but the geopolitical premium from Iran supports the strong short - term trend. The chemical industry is running strongly under the influence of sector sentiment, crude oil cost support, and capital inflows, and the end of the Iranian geopolitical impact needs to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: US refinery operations decline and demand weakens, EIA weekly inventory accumulates significantly for two consecutive weeks, short - term fundamentals weaken, and mid - term fundamentals are loosely pessimistic. The short - term trading logic shifts to the Iranian geopolitical premium, and the increased US military deployment in the Middle East in the past week supports the strong short - term trend. The geopolitical uncertainty in Iran is high. Possible future scenarios include diplomatic negotiation restart under military pressure, a controllable situation after a US air strike and an Iranian counter - strike, and a low - probability scenario of the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [2][3][4]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased with position today, and the short - term structure turns bullish, with the short - term support at 448. The strategy is to stop loss on short positions in the hourly cycle and then wait and see [4]. (2) Styrene - Logic: Short - term supply disruptions and export rumors lead to counter - seasonal inventory reduction, supporting short - term prices. However, after the recent significant profit expansion, there is pressure for maintenance devices to resume and increase production in the mid - term. The continuation of the short - term rise depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a large reduction in positions at high levels [7]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today and closed with a long upper shadow, with the short - term (hourly) support at 7300. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [7]. (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: The speculation space for pure benzene is weaker than that of styrene. It is mainly driven by the profit expansion of styrene and the potential positive impact of the expected reduction of US tariffs on South Korean pure benzene on domestic imports. The continuation of the short - term rise depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a large reduction in positions at high levels [10]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term (hourly) support at 5930. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. (4) Rubber - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the natural rubber's own fundamentals. The rise is mainly driven by the substitution effect after the increase in synthetic rubber prices and follows the passive movement of synthetic rubber [12]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term support at 15780. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [12]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The domestic butadiene production at the raw material end remains at a high level compared to the same period. The demand side is also stable, and the domestic fundamentals change little. However, the cold wave in Europe and the US pushes up overseas oil and gas prices and the expected short - term shutdown of overseas devices lead to a contraction in overseas butadiene supply, pushing up international butadiene prices. Short - term cost push and large capital inflows into the chemical sector last week drive the short - term strength of synthetic rubber [15]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased with position reduction today, with the short - term support at 12000. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [15]. (6) PX - Logic: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the mid - term before the new production capacity comes online in the third quarter, but the market started trading in advance in December. Although there is a negative feedback logic from the decline in textile polyester in the short - term, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the support from the rising crude oil cost due to geopolitical sentiment drive the short - term strength. The end of the Iranian geopolitical impact needs to be monitored [18]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term support at 7325. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [18]. (7) PTA - Logic: The short - term fundamentals are weak. It enters seasonal inventory accumulation due to weak demand in the off - season, and there is a negative feedback logic from the reduction of downstream polyester production. However, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the support from the rising crude oil cost due to geopolitical sentiment drive the short - term strength. The end of the Iranian geopolitical impact needs to be monitored [21]. - Technical Tracking: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term support at 5320. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [21]. (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain remain weak. The pressure of new production capacity release combined with the off - season demand makes the supply - demand drive weak. However, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support from the US cold wave drive the short - term strength. The continuation depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [24]. - Technical Tracking: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased with position today, with the short - term support at 6615. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [24]. (9) Methanol - Logic: The port starts seasonal inventory reduction, but the extremely high inventory level compared to the same period and the negative feedback from the early shutdown and load reduction of MTO devices make the fundamentals weak. However, the recent rise in Iranian geopolitical sentiment and large capital inflows into the chemical sector last week drive the short - term strength of methanol [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. It increased with position today, with the short - term support at 2255. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [26]. (10) PVC - Logic: High production, high inventory, and weak demand remain. It is affected by the chemical sector sentiment in the short - term, but the upward pressure is still huge [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It oscillated today, and the short - term structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The domestic fundamentals remain weak. There is seasonal inventory accumulation pressure, the supply operation is at a high level, and there is a negative feedback logic from the reduction of polyester demand. However, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the impact of the US cold wave drive the short - term strength. The continuation depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [31]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term support at 3825. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [31]. (12) Plastic - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain remain weak. The pressure of new production capacity release combined with the off - season demand makes the supply - demand drive weak. However, capital inflows into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support from the US cold wave drive the short - term strength. The continuation depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased with position reduction today, with the short - term pressure at 6815. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The fundamentals of soda ash remain high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, and the oversupply pattern continues. Although the soda ash production decreased slightly this week, it is still at the highest level compared to the same period and month - on - month, and the pressure of new production capacity release remains high. The demand side shows a small increase in the daily melting of float glass at a low level, and the daily melting of photovoltaic glass remains at the median of the same period in history. The total demand is still weak. The soda ash inventory decreased slightly due to the pre - holiday downstream replenishment demand, but the total inventory of 1.52 million tons is still at an extremely high level compared to the same period. Without unexpected policies, the far - month premium of soda ash is expected to be repaired downward month by month, and the 05 contract should maintain a short - selling idea [35]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounded with position reduction today and tested the short - term pressure at 1215, and the pressure level is still limited. The strategy is to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on the reversal in the hourly cycle [35]. (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda remains in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand (weak non - aluminum demand and weak alumina demand expectation). With sufficient comprehensive profits of chlor - alkali, chlor - alkali devices still maintain high - load operation, and the supply pressure is still huge. The downward drive continues and it is difficult to reverse [38]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounded with position reduction today, with the short - term pressure at 2000. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and do not buy at the bottom before the structure turns bullish [38].
天富期货地缘情绪主导短期行情
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2026-01-26 12:55