天富期货碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报-20260126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Carbonate Lithium: The current fundamentals of carbonate lithium remain strong. Despite being in the off - season for downstream demand, the weekly inventory data continues to show a de - stocking pattern, supporting the futures price. However, the price has large fluctuations as it reaches higher levels [1]. - Polysilicon: The morning's sharp rise in polysilicon futures was mainly affected by the macro - emotional aspect. With the implementation of production cuts by leading enterprises, a decline in production is expected in January. Factory inventories have increased, and the expected prices of manufacturers and downstream users are weakening [4][7]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon futures are in an oscillating range. The demand side remains weak, and the key factor for future price movement is whether the production cut plans of large - scale manufacturers can be implemented [12]. 3. Summary by Category Carbonate Lithium - Market Trend: The futures price of carbonate lithium opened high and closed low today. The main 2605 contract fell 8.73% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 165,680 yuan/ton [1]. - Core Logic: In the short - term, the supply side has unexpectedly contracted. The resumption of production of 8 lithium - mining enterprises in Yichun, Jiangxi has been repeatedly delayed, and lithium salt plants have regular annual maintenance. Even in the off - season, the inventory is decreasing, supporting the futures price [1]. - Technical Analysis: It is currently controlled by bulls, with a significant decrease in intraday positions. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract shows a green line, green band, and green ladder, while the overnight 2 - hour cycle has a strong red ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 147,260 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Suggestion: Maintain the strategy of buying on dips. Due to the large price fluctuations, operate with caution. Use the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" to find entry points, and follow the 8:30 morning live - broadcast for specific operations [1]. - Concerns: Regulatory upgrades, the resumption progress of Jiaxiawo, and the production scheduling of the demand side [2] Polysilicon - Market Trend: The polysilicon futures oscillated today. The main 2605 contract rose 1.10% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 51,280 yuan/ton [4]. - Core Logic: The morning's sharp rise was due to the macro - emotional aspect as domestic commodities generally rose. Leading polysilicon enterprises have implemented production cuts, and it is expected that the output in January will drop to around 90,000 tons. The increase in downstream component output is limited, and the factory inventory has increased this week [4][7]. - Technical Analysis: The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, blue band, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle has a strong red ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 48,885 yuan/ton [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: It may oscillate weakly [8]. - Concerns: The latest quotes of silicon material enterprises to downstream users [9] Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The industrial silicon futures oscillated today. The 2605 contract rose 1.08% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,915 yuan/ton [12]. - Core Logic: It is currently in the oscillating range of (8,500 - 9,100). The demand side remains weak. If the production cut plan of Hesheng Silicon Industry is implemented, it will have a large impact on the short - term supply side [12]. - Technical Analysis: It is controlled by bulls, with a significant increase in today's positions. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, red band, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle has a strong red ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 8,650 yuan/ton [12]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the short - term, focus on whether the production cut plan is implemented. Operate after breaking through the range and observe within the range. Refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live - broadcast for intraday operations [12]. - Concerns: Whether the production cut plans of large - scale manufacturers can be implemented [13]