天富期货菜油、生猪下挫

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with vegetable oils rising across the board and led by rapeseed oil, while live pigs are falling. Rapeseed oil may remain strong in the future, and the subsequent start of the Spring Festival stocking for live pigs should be continuously monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Rapeseed oil is leading the rise in the vegetable oil sector due to the increase in crude oil prices and potential US tariffs on Canada. The supply situation remains unimproved, and domestic rapeseed oil inventory is low year - on - year, supporting its upward trend. Live pigs are declining because of possible concentrated slaughter at the end of the year and the lack of concentrated manifestation of the holiday effect on the demand side [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Oils - Rapeseed oil and palm oil prices are rising. The main 2605 contract of rapeseed oil has soared by over 4%. Although China - Canada economic and trade relations have improved, the US threat of 100% tariffs on Canada may affect the import of Canadian rapeseed. Domestic rapeseed oil output is stagnant year - on - year, and the inventory is low. Malaysian palm oil supply - demand has improved, with production in January 1 - 20 down 16.06% month - on - month and exports from January 1 - 25 up 10% month - on - month, potentially leading to inventory reduction. The strategy is to go long on rapeseed oil at low prices after a pull - back [2]. 3.2.2 Live Pigs - The main 2603 contract of live pigs has opened low and fallen. As the Spring Festival approaches, the slaughter window for farmers is narrowing, and there may be concentrated slaughter at the end of the year. The demand side has certain stocking needs, but the concentrated effect is not obvious. The strategy is to conduct short - term trading [3]. 3.2.3 Sugar - The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded but is limited. China's new sugar is concentrated on the market, and the import volume has increased significantly. The pre - holiday stocking boost is limited, and the market is cautious. The strategy is to go short at high prices, with resistance at 5200 - 5210 [6]. 3.2.4 Eggs - The main 2603 contract of eggs has opened high and then fallen, with the market fluctuating. The Spring Festival stocking has boosted demand, but the high inventory of laying hens still brings supply pressure. The strategy is to go short - term long at low prices, with a support area of 3050 - 3060 [7][9]. 3.2.5 Soybean Meal - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal has risen in an oscillatory manner. The increase in the price of US soybeans and the approaching Spring Festival have led to increased downstream stocking demand. The strategy is to go long with a light position, with support at 2749 - 2754 [10]. 3.2.6 Cotton - The main 2605 contract of cotton has fallen in an oscillatory manner. Domestic commercial inventory has increased slightly, and Xinjiang's inventory has decreased. The demand side has certain resilience, and the high - count yarn order demand is strong. The strategy is to go long with a light position at low prices, with a support area of 14465 - 14535 [12].