尿素周报：农需成关键变量-20260126

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The start of agricultural demand is the key to supporting urea prices. Although the fundamentals may deteriorate marginally during the downstream factory holidays, with the approaching spring plowing, urea prices are likely to rise rather than fall [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics - Last week, upstream factories supported prices with pending orders, leading to a market inversion. Futures lacked support and downstream demand was weak, but spot prices remained stable. Some factories raised prices slightly over the weekend. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1,690 - 1,720 yuan/ton [2][4][5] 3.2 Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market showed mixed trends, with an overall increase. As of January 26, the main May contract closed at 1,791 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the settlement price on January 19. Weekly trading volume decreased by 255.34 million tons to 1,206.05 million tons, and open interest increased by 16.736 million tons to 776.372 million tons. The long - term trend remains strong. The futures increase was greater than the spot increase, and the basis weakened. As of January 26, the 05 - contract basis was - 51 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week. The number of urea warehouse receipts on January 26 was 13,274, down 81 week - on - week [7][8][10] 3.3 Urea Supply Side - Last week, urea weekly production increased. From January 15 - 21, weekly production was 1.4238 million tons, up 1.33% from the previous period, with an average daily production of 203,400 tons. Coal - based production increased by 0.74%, gas - based production increased by 5.30%. Small - particle production increased by 1.60%, and large - particle production increased by 0.28%. On January 26, the national daily urea production was 206,100 tons, up 19,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.68%. Coal prices weakened, LNG prices remained unchanged, synthetic ammonia prices fell, and methanol prices rose [15][17][18] 3.4 Urea Demand Side - As of January 26, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer remained stable week - on - week. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories continued to increase and was higher than the same period in previous years. However, due to cost support for phosphorus and potassium fertilizers, compound fertilizer prices were in a stalemate, downstream demand was weak, and there was a possibility of production cuts due to squeezed profits. As of January 23, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 63.65%, up 1.47% from the previous period and 3.48% year - on - year. From January 19 - 23, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 63.65%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous period but lower than the same period last year. Industrial demand only maintained basic needs. As of January 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 946,000 tons, down 40,100 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.07% and 488,900 tons lower than the same period last year. Port inventory was 134,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [20][22] 3.5 International Market - Export restrictions in China and Iran have pushed up international urea prices. India is expected to issue a tender in February, and there is also import demand in Mexico and Latin America due to supply shortages. As of January 23, small - particle FOB prices in China increased by 15 US dollars/ton week - on - week to 420 US dollars/ton, and large - particle FOB prices in China increased by 10 US dollars/ton week - on - week to 425 US dollars/ton. FOB prices in other regions also showed varying degrees of increase [24]