COSMOS(SZ:300856)2026-01-26 12:57Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant downgrade in the investment outlook for the company, with a projected net profit drop of 78.7% to 84.0% for 2025 compared to 2024 [4][12]. Core Insights - The company, Kosi Co., Ltd. (科思股份), is experiencing a severe decline in profitability, with a forecasted net profit of only 0.9 to 1.2 billion yuan for 2025, marking a drastic fall from previous years [4][12]. - The gross margin has plummeted from 48.8% in 2023 to 29.6% in 2025, indicating a loss of pricing power and profitability [9][10]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 11.2 billion yuan, but this was accompanied by a significant drop in cash flow, which decreased by nearly 79% year-on-year [12]. - Kosi Co., Ltd. has historically benefited from a strong position in the sunscreen market, holding over 20% of the global market share, but is now facing challenges due to reduced demand from major clients [15][16]. - The company's reliance on international clients for over 80% of its revenue has made it vulnerable to global market fluctuations, particularly as clients begin to reduce inventory [16][21]. - The report highlights the company's ongoing expansion efforts, including projects in Malaysia, despite the current downturn in performance [25][28]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company has issued a shocking profit warning, projecting a net profit of only 0.9 to 1.2 billion yuan for 2025, a stark contrast to previous years [4]. - The gross margin has decreased significantly, dropping from 48.8% in 2023 to 29.6% in 2025 [9][10]. Market Position and Challenges - Kosi Co., Ltd. has been a leading player in the sunscreen market, but the slowdown in demand from major clients has exposed vulnerabilities in its business model [15][16]. - The company’s gross margin for its core product, cosmetic active ingredients, fell from 53.1% in 2023 to 35.3% in 2025 [17]. Strategic Moves - Despite the downturn, the company is pursuing expansion projects, including a significant production facility in Malaysia, indicating a commitment to long-term growth [25][28]. - The report notes that the actual controller of the company has reduced their holdings, which may signal a lack of confidence in the near-term outlook [22][23].