胜遇利率周报：税期资金面波动相对温和，利率债收益率整体继续下行-20260126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The liquidity of funds during the tax period fluctuated moderately, and the yields of interest - rate bonds continued to decline. The yields of most maturities of treasury bonds and CDB bonds decreased this week, with the 1 - year treasury bond yield being an exception, which increased by 4bp [1][2] - The domestic bond market showed a good performance after getting rid of the weak start of the year, but the further downward space of yields was limited due to stock market disturbances. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds remained stable at around 1.8%, and it was expected that it would be difficult to decline further before the Spring Festival. The stock market presented a differentiated pattern [7] - Overseas bond markets were mainly affected by the intensified geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Although the probability of a war against Iran was low, the risk of miscalculation among parties still existed. The Fed's interest - rate decision in the next week was relatively certain, and the market generally expected no interest - rate cut [7] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Fund Liquidity - This week, DR007 ranged from 1.48% to 1.51%, and DR001 ranged from 1.32% to 1.42%. The central value changed little compared with the previous week, and the fluctuation of DR007 decreased [1] 3.2 Yield Changes of Interest - rate Bonds - Treasury bonds: The 1 - year yield increased by 4bp, the 3 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year yields decreased by 1bp each, and the 7 - year yield decreased by 3bp [2][3] - CDB bonds: The 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields decreased by 1bp, 1bp, 3bp, 3bp, and 5bp respectively [2][3] 3.3 Term Spread Changes - On January 23, the 10 - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds was 54.79bp, and that of CDB bonds was 39.76bp, narrowing by 5.21bp and 2.34bp respectively compared with January 16 [5] 3.4 Market Conditions at Home and Abroad - Domestic: The bond market performed well, but the stock market affected the downward space of bond yields. The stock market was differentiated, with large and medium - cap stocks weakening and small - cap stocks rising [7] - Overseas: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East affected overseas bond markets. The Fed's interest - rate decision was relatively certain, with no expected interest - rate cut [7]