金融工程周报：残差波动率因子收益回升-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The operation rating for CITIC Five-Style - Stable is ☆☆★ [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending on January 23, 2026, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 1.75%, 0.21%, and 2.08% respectively [3] - In the public fund market, the enhanced index strategy performed strongly in the past week, with a weekly return of 1.82%. Most neutral strategy products had positive returns, and the convertible bond strategy outperformed the pure bond strategy. Among the commodity ETFs, the return of non-ferrous metals ETFs had a slight correction, while the return of energy and chemical ETFs rebounded, with a weekly return of 3.48% [3] - Among the CITIC Five-Styles, the financial style declined in the past week, while the other styles rose. The style rotation chart showed that the relative strength of the stable and cyclical styles strengthened recently, and the relative strength momentum of the financial and cyclical styles increased month-on-month [3] - In the public fund pool, the financial and consumer fund style indexes outperformed the benchmark in the past week, with the financial style fund index having an excess return of 2.72%. The market's deviation from the consumer style continued to decline according to the trend of the fund style coefficient. The crowding indicator decreased slightly this week, and the cyclical and financial styles are currently in a historically high crowding range [3] - Among the Barra factors, the medium - long - term momentum and residual volatility factors had better performance in the past week, with weekly excess returns of 1.98% and 1.69% respectively. The returns of the profitability and leverage factors continued to decline. In terms of win - rate, the low - volatility factors strengthened marginally, and the dividend factor performed weakly recently. The cross - section rotation speed of the factors decreased month - on - month this week and is currently in a low - percentile range in the past year [3] - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the growth style decreased month - on - month this week, and the current signal favors the stable style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 1.81%, with an excess return of 0.56% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fund Market Review - The enhanced index strategy in the public fund market performed strongly in the past week, with a weekly return of 1.82%. Most neutral strategy products had positive returns, and the convertible bond strategy outperformed the pure bond strategy. Among the commodity ETFs, the return of non - ferrous metals ETFs had a slight correction, while the return of energy and chemical ETFs rebounded, with a weekly return of 3.48% [3] CITIC Five - Style Analysis - Among the CITIC Five - Styles, the financial style declined in the past week, while the other styles rose. The style rotation chart showed that the relative strength of the stable and cyclical styles strengthened recently, and the relative strength momentum of the financial and cyclical styles increased month - on - month [3] - In the public fund pool, the financial and consumer fund style indexes outperformed the benchmark in the past week, with the financial style fund index having an excess return of 2.72%. The market's deviation from the consumer style continued to decline according to the trend of the fund style coefficient. The crowding indicator decreased slightly this week, and the cyclical and financial styles are currently in a historically high crowding range [3] Barra Factor Analysis - Among the Barra factors, the medium - long - term momentum and residual volatility factors had better performance in the past week, with weekly excess returns of 1.98% and 1.69% respectively. The returns of the profitability and leverage factors continued to decline. In terms of win - rate, the low - volatility factors strengthened marginally, and the dividend factor performed weakly recently. The cross - section rotation speed of the factors decreased month - on - month this week and is currently in a low - percentile range in the past year [3] Style Timing Model - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the growth style decreased month - on - month this week, and the current signal favors the stable style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 1.81%, with an excess return of 0.56% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3]