有色金属日报-20260126

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Nickel and Stainless Steel, Tin, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and influencing factors, and provides investment suggestions based on these analyses [1][2][3] Summaries by Metal Copper - Last Friday, Shanghai copper opened higher above the short - term moving average, driven by precious metal trading sentiment and a weak US dollar. The market is concerned about the impact of strikes at small copper mines in Chile and frequent road closures by a transport contractor on large copper mines. Indonesia's Grasberg is expected to resume operation at 85% capacity in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to domestic spot trading [1] Aluminum, Alumina and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated today. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan were - 160 yuan, - 250 yuan, and 120 yuan respectively. The aluminum rod processing fee returned to negative. Geopolitical games have made the financial market sentiment fluctuate. The short - term market deviates from the weak fundamentals. Attention should be paid to whether a directional breakthrough can be formed in the high - level oscillation range. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, and the market activity is not high. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and tax adjustments have increased costs in some areas. The domestic alumina operating capacity is around 96 million tons, and there has been no production cut. The alumina balance remains in significant surplus. The average cash cost of using imported ore in Shanxi and Henan in the first quarter has dropped to around 2,600 yuan, and there is still some downward space for costs. The spot price of alumina is under pressure, and it needs to wait for large - scale production cuts to stabilize. When the basis weakens, short positions can be taken on the high side of the futures [2] Zinc - With low TC, domestic smelters are both reducing and resuming production, and the cost support is strong. The pressure on the supply side is limited, which supports the high - level operation of zinc prices. However, high - priced zinc still has a negative impact on the consumption side. The terminal orders of downstream enterprises are weak, and some enterprises have taken early holidays. As the Spring Festival approaches, in the game between cost and consumption, Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. Due to consumption constraints, short positions can be taken before the festival [3] Lead - The supply of lead concentrate and waste batteries continues to be in short supply, and the cost - side support is still strong. In late January, primary lead smelters resumed production intensively. SMM 1 lead has been at a discount of over 100 yuan to the near - month futures contract. The lead ingot inventory has become visible, and the SMM lead social inventory has continued to rise to 35,200 tons. The terminal orders of battery enterprises are weak, the finished product inventory has accumulated, and the willingness to stock up before the Spring Festival is insufficient. In the game between cost and consumption, Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate at a low level in the range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillated at a high level, and the market trading was active. After the spot price of stainless steel reached a high, the downstream terminal's fear of high prices increased, and the purchasing was cautious. The actual trading was weak, and the trading was mainly concentrated in the arbitrage operations of futures - spot institutions. The goods were piled up in the circulation link. The arrival of goods at steel mills was limited, and although the inventory increased slightly, it was still at a low level. Traders were strongly willing to support prices, which supported the strong operation of the spot. The pure nickel inventory increased by 2,700 tons to 66,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory was 29,300 tons, and the stainless steel inventory remained basically unchanged at 844,000 tons. As the market shows fear of high prices, caution is recommended [6] Tin - Last Friday night, both domestic and international tin prices continued to rise. The market is optimistic about the huge investment around AI, which boosts the trading sentiment of the tin market's long - term demand. Tin prices are driven by investment funds, the LME spot discount has widened to $245, and the domestic tin social inventory of Steel Union has increased to 11,001 tons [7] Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, breaking through multiple integer thresholds and closing at around 166,000 yuan. Exchange policies have affected market participation. The continuously high lithium carbonate price may have led to the closing of a large number of hedging positions. The strong spot and long - position speculative positions are dominant, and the position structure is fragile. The total market inventory decreased by 800 tons to 109,000 tons. The smelter inventory remained basically unchanged at 19,800 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 38,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 51,500 tons. The overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down, mainly because downstream enterprises replenish inventory opportunistically, smelters are beginning to experience unsalable products, and traders' confidence in hoarding goods has wavered. The lithium carbonate futures price is in a high - level oscillation, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely high [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon was boosted by the production cut expectation and rose to 9,000 yuan/ton, but the intraday increase was partially retracted. On the supply side, silicon furnaces in Inner Mongolia have been shut down, and there is an expectation of production cuts at a large factory in Xinjiang at the end of January. The industry's operating rate is clearly on a downward trend. On the demand side, each sector is generally weak: the polysilicon output in February may fall back to 90,000 tons, which will drag down the demand for industrial silicon; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon has stabilized at around 66%, and some enterprises in the recycled aluminum alloy may take early holidays, and the subsequent operating rate is likely to weaken. In terms of inventory, the current industrial silicon inventory has reached 556,000 tons, a slight increase of 1,000 tons week - on - week. Overall, although the fundamentals of industrial silicon have improved marginally, the downstream support is weak. It is expected that the industry will enter the inventory reduction pattern in February, but the inventory reduction amplitude is limited. The futures market is driven by the production cut expectation and has risen in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the 9,000 yuan/ton mark [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly higher, but the spot market's price cuts could not promote transactions, and the market was still dull. The average price of N - type materials was 540,000 yuan/ton. Affected by the high silver price, downstream enterprises are cautious about increasing production. The previously expected "rush to export" has not effectively driven the procurement of polysilicon. The inventory pressure continues to rise, the factory inventory has accumulated to 330,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts are increasing rapidly. The market expects the expansion of the delivery product range, but the official guidance is still pending from the exchange. The fundamentals and market expectations jointly suppress the rebound space of polysilicon, and it is expected that the market will continue to be under pressure [10]