化工专题：周期拐点凸显，节奏把握为关键

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The chemical industry is at a cyclical inflection point, and the key lies in rhythm control. A "full - scale bull market" lacks support, and a scenario of tight supply and warm demand is likely. It is recommended to take a long - position - based strategy with flexible rhythm control. [55] - In the short term, be wary of over - extended gains. If demand fails to pick up as expected, high profits may lead to unexpected supply increases. Pay attention to terminal demand, cost transmission, downstream restocking, and upstream production. [55] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Background - Global Order Reconfiguration: Geopolitical games reshape the supply curve of commodities, emerging demands form new demand curves, and strategic security needs reshape investment and inventory structures. [5] - US Situation: The Fed has started an easing cycle. The US economy shows a mixed picture, with AI and electrification driving capital expenditure while traditional manufacturing is under pressure. [9] - China's Focus: In 2026, service consumption will support domestic demand. Monetary policy will be moderately loose, fiscal policy will be actively implemented, real - estate policies will promote new development models, and supply - side reforms will deepen. [16] - Commodity Rotation and Recent Performance: The energy structure is in transition, with the proportion of non - water renewable energy increasing. [22] 2. Chemical Views - Demand Characteristics: Demand in traditional sectors has a large proportion, and significant growth depends on overall economic recovery. [30] - Trend Review: The chemical industry has experienced a four - year decline. In 2025, the energy - chemical sector performed the weakest among commodities, but recently it has rebounded rapidly with internal differentiation. [33][34] - Medium - to - Long - Term Outlook: In 2026, demand support will strengthen, supply will be optimized, and the sector's valuation is at a historical low, showing signs of bottoming out. [46] - 2026 Capacity Growth: The growth rate of chemical production capacity will slow down in 2026. [47] - Short - Term Disturbances: Extreme weather, geopolitical factors, and capital outflows from the stock and non - ferrous markets are short - term disturbances. [50] - Characteristics of the Current Uptrend: The chemical sector is strengthening with structural differentiation, which is essentially a structural valuation repair due to supply - side improvements. Different sub - sectors have different driving factors. [53] - Future Outlook and Suggestions: A "full - scale bull market" is unlikely. It is recommended to take a long - position - based strategy with flexible rhythm control. Pay attention to cost support, terminal demand, and policy implementation. [55] - Later Concerns: Focus on the price trends of oil, gas, and coal, the impact of "anti - involution" policies, and the influence of geopolitical and trade policies on imports and exports. [59][62] - Variety Views - Coal Chemical Industry: For methanol, supply is uncertain, and price is restricted by import and MTO profit. For urea, the fundamentals are weak, and the price fluctuates between production cost and export policy limits. [65] - Chlor - Alkali Chemical Industry: For caustic soda, high supply and weak demand lead to low - valuation and weak - expectation. For PVC, there is no new capacity in 2026, but the fundamental pressure is still large. [67][68] - Polyester Series: For PX/PTA, the supply - demand situation improves, and the processing fee may expand. For MEG, short - term supply is expected to decrease, but inventory pressure is significant. [70] - Benzene Series: For pure benzene, the negative impact weakens, but high inventory is still a pressure. For styrene, there is a capacity gap, and exports are an important growth point. [72] - Olefins: For propylene, polypropylene, and polyethylene, short - term rebound is driven by external factors, and the production pressure is still large in 2026. For synthetic rubber (butadiene), the supply - demand situation is favorable, and a long - term long - position strategy is recommended. [74] 3. Industrial Data The report provides a large amount of data on the spot - futures prices, spreads, profits, supply, demand, and inventory of various chemical products, including MA, UR, SH, PVC, BU, PX, TA, EG, BZ, EB, PE, PP, RU, and BR. [78][108][127]