聚烯烃周报：冠通期货研究报告-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Plastic and PP prices showed a trend of first declining and then rising [5] - The plastic market is expected to experience short - term strong oscillations following the positive sentiment in the chemical sector, but the sustainability of the plastic rebound should be treated with caution due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern and weak spot market follow - up [4] - The L - PP spread is expected to decline because of new plastic production capacity, higher plastic开工率 compared to PP, and the fact that the concentrated demand for plastic film has not yet started [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 increased by 5 percentage points to around 90%, at a moderately high level, due to the restart of some Shanghai Petrochemical's overhauled units [13] - PP开工率 decreased by 1 percentage point to around 80%, at a moderately low level, because of new overhauled units in some PP enterprises [13] 3.2 Plastic and PP Downstream开工率 - As of the week of January 23, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 39.53%, remaining at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years, with stable agricultural film orders and a slight increase in packaging film orders [4][19] - As of the week of January 23, the PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.34 percentage points to 52.87%, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The开工率 of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of拉丝, decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 42.04%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4][19] 3.3 Plastic Basis - The spot price decreased while the futures price increased, causing the basis of the 05 contract to drop to - 85 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [23] 3.4 Plastic and PP Inventory - The Friday morning inventory of petrochemicals decreased by 40,000 tons to 500,000 tons, 35,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January, but has been average recently, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to recent years [26]