泡泡玛特(09992):新爆款带动 IP 势能,业绩与估值具备修复空间
Guoxin Securities·2026-01-26 13:17

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][22] Core Viewpoints - The management's recent share buybacks demonstrate confidence in the company's future and stock price [3][4] - The company's new product series, PUCKY and Starry People, have shown strong demand, with sold-out status on official platforms and significant price premiums on secondary markets, indicating potential for IP value enhancement during the upcoming holiday season [3][5] - The company is expected to see substantial profit growth, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 120.2 billion, 170.5 billion, and 208.9 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 284.4%, 41.9%, and 22.6% [3][10][15] Summary by Relevant Sections Share Buyback - The company announced a buyback of 500,000 shares at a price of 192.97 yuan per share and the cancellation of 1.4 million shares at 179.60 yuan per share, indicating a total buyback amount of approximately 347.9 million yuan [2][5] Product Performance - Recent trends show that the PUCKY and Starry People series have sold out on official websites, with price premiums on secondary markets ranging from 2-3 times for hidden versions and 70-200% for regular versions, suggesting strong market demand [3][5][9] Financial Projections - The company has revised its profit forecasts, expecting revenues of 356.2 billion, 512.5 billion, and 634.5 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 173.2%, 43.9%, and 23.8% [10][19] - The gross margin is projected to exceed 70% in the first half of 2025, with a steady gross margin of around 71% expected through 2027 [12][19]