利比亚经济监测，2025年秋季：为公共财政管理的问责制和透明度铺平道路（英）

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for Libya's economy, with a projected GDP growth of 13.3% in 2025, primarily driven by the oil sector's recovery and expansion [21]. Core Insights - Libya's economy is showing signs of recovery in 2025, with oil production averaging 1.3 million barrels per day, a 17% increase year-on-year, following a crisis in the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) in 2024 that had severely impacted economic growth [20][34]. - The fiscal situation is improving, with a projected fiscal surplus of 3.8% of GDP in 2025, driven by increased oil production and revenue despite a decline in oil prices [21][22]. - The report highlights ongoing challenges, including political fragmentation and a lack of a unified national budget, which complicates macroeconomic management and economic stability [27][29]. Summary by Sections Recent Economic Developments - The report notes a strong recovery in Libya's GDP in the first half of 2025, primarily due to the oil sector's resurgence, with non-oil GDP also showing robust growth supported by private and public consumption [20][21]. - The fiscal surplus for the GNU expanded to 3.6% of GDP in the first nine months of 2025, compared to 0.7% in the same period of 2024, despite rising public expenditures [22][44]. Political and Institutional Developments - The political landscape remains divided between the GNU and the GNS, hindering efforts to unify fiscal policies and implement a coherent national budget [26][27]. - The report emphasizes the need for political consensus and institutional cooperation to improve public financial management and transparency [23][29]. Public Financial Management - The report discusses the challenges in Libya's public financial management system, including institutional fragmentation and reliance on oil revenues, which complicate budget execution and reporting [23][24]. - It identifies successful reform strategies from other countries that could be adopted in Libya, such as improving cash management and revising budget classifications [23]. External Sector Performance - Libya's trade surplus has contracted by 16% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in oil export revenues and a 9% increase in imports driven by government spending on development and reconstruction projects [64][74]. - The report highlights the importance of accurate trade data for effective economic policy-making and the need for improvements in trade reporting and customs systems [77][79].