中银晨会聚焦-20260127

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the steady growth of the postal industry, with a total delivery volume of 2,165.1 billion pieces in 2025, marking an 11.8% year-on-year increase, and express delivery volume reaching 1,989.5 billion pieces, up 13.6% year-on-year [15][14] - The social service sector has shown a 4.78% increase in the last two trading weeks, ranking 8th among 31 industries, with expectations for continued growth in consumer spending driven by various policies [8][12] - The logistics sector is experiencing structural optimization, with the national postal bureau reporting robust growth in the industry, while the airline sector sees a slight decrease in average ticket prices compared to 2019 due to timing issues [15][14] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.85% to 14,316.64 [1] - The social service sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 5.97 percentage points, indicating strong relative performance [9][8] Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the successful first flight of a 500kg tilt-rotor drone, indicating advancements in the low-altitude economy and the potential for eVTOL applications [15][14] - The report notes a general decline in freight rates for major shipping routes due to geopolitical tensions affecting demand [15][14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong earnings growth certainty in the travel chain and related industries, such as Tongcheng Travel and Huangshan Tourism [12] - It also recommends monitoring opportunities in the express logistics sector, particularly for companies like SF Express and Jitu Express, as well as in the airline industry due to increased demand during the Spring Festival [17][12]