金信期货日刊-20260127

Group 1: Report Core View - The report analyzes the reasons for the rise of soda ash futures and provides technical analysis of multiple futures varieties [2][3] Group 2: Reasons for Soda Ash Futures Rise - Macro - sentiment has warmed up. The central bank has released signals of loose monetary policy, increasing the expectation of stable growth. Capital has flowed back to commodities, and the linkage rise of related varieties such as glass has spurred the bullish sentiment of soda ash futures [3] - Cost support has been strengthened. The rebound of energy prices such as coal has pushed up the production cost of soda ash. Most ammonia - alkali and combined - alkali enterprises are in a loss state. The cost line of natural alkali is about 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton. Enterprises' willingness to hold prices has increased at low prices, and the spot quotation has been slightly raised, supporting the futures price [3] - There are short - term supply disturbances. Some enterprises have carried out temporary maintenance, causing the industry's operating rate to fluctuate periodically. Coupled with the tight logistics capacity before the Spring Festival, the transportation of goods from the main production areas has been delayed, and the short - term circulation in the sales areas has been tight, magnifying the market's concerns about supply [3] - There is a phased inventory reduction. As of January 22, the total inventory of manufacturers was 1.5212 million tons, a weekly decrease of 23,000 tons. Although it is still at a historical high, the short - term de - stocking trend has alleviated the market's anxiety about inventory accumulation. Combined with the pre - holiday replenishment expectation, it has promoted the price rebound [3] - There is active capital game. Long - position funds in the futures market have entered the market intensively. The open interest and trading volume of the main contract have increased simultaneously. Capital speculation has magnified the short - term price increase, forming a pattern of rising volume and price [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Different Futures Stock Index Futures - On Monday of this week, the market style switched. The weights represented by 50 and 300 performed well, while the small and medium - cap stocks represented by 500 and 1000 showed a sharp decline after a high - opening. Whether the style between large - cap weights and small - cap stocks has switched still needs to be observed [5] Gold - After a shock adjustment, gold has reached a new high again, with an increase in volatility and an accelerating sign. The operation strategy is mainly to go long [9] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply relaxation has further fermented. On the demand side, except for the remaining strength in exports, the real estate and infrastructure are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and the domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it is approaching an important lower support, and it should be regarded as a shock in the short term [11][12] Glass - The daily melting volume has increased slightly, and the inventory has started to accumulate again. The main driving forces are the policy - side stimulus policies and the anti - involution policies for the clearance of the supply side. Technically, it has rebounded continuously at the daily - line level, and it should be regarded as a shock in the short term [13][14] Methanol - Due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation, the US aircraft carrier has arrived in the Indian Ocean, and the Iranian army is on full alert. The methanol futures have shown a shock - strengthening pattern recently. The short - term driving forces are the expected reduction of Iranian imports and the de - stocking of port inventories. In the medium term, it is suppressed by the low profit of downstream MTO and the high domestic operating rate. In the long term, it is a game between cost support and the recovery of imports. Opportunities for going long should be grasped [16] Pulp - As of January 22, 2026, the inventory of mainstream port samples of Chinese pulp was 2.068 million tons, an increase of 54,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. The inventory has continued to accumulate in this cycle, and the port sample inventory has shown an accumulation trend for three consecutive weeks. The futures market has shown a weak shock trend recently [18]