淡季缺乏亮点，盘??撑松动

Report Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The supply side of steel is disturbed, the resumption of production by steel mills is slow, and the high shipment and high inventory of iron ore suppress the valuation of the futures market. As the downstream replenishment of coking coal and coke progresses, the support for replenishment weakens. During the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the cost - side support is loosening, causing the futures market to face pressure. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress futures prices. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity, and the resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to boost the replenishment expectation, with the furnace material prices having the expectation of a low - level rebound [1][2][3] Summary by Category 1. Iron Element - Iron Ore: Overseas mine shipments have increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while Brazil and non - mainstream countries have declined. The arrival volume has weakened, and there are still expectations of supply disturbances due to weather. The demand side has a stable rigid demand, and steel mills are in the process of replenishing inventory but with weak enthusiasm. Ports and steel mills are both increasing inventory, and the total inventory pressure is accumulating. In the short term, the supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory pressure increases. The pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price, and the supply - demand situation remains to be verified, with the short - term trend expected to be oscillatory [8] - Scrap Steel: The average arrival volume this week has slightly decreased, lower than the same period in previous lunar years. The daily consumption of electric furnaces is expected to decline, and the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel has also slightly decreased. Steel enterprises' inventory has increased, and the pre - festival replenishment progress is close to last year. The supply is stable, the daily consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with the spot price expected to follow the finished products [9] 2. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost - side support is strong, and there are still expectations for the resumption of production by steel mills and winter storage replenishment demand. The supply - demand structural contradiction is limited, and the spot price increase is still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12] - Coking Coal: The domestic supply is stable, and the import of Mongolian coal is at a high level. The demand side is still in the winter storage stage, and the supply of coal mines is expected to decline near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to marginally improve, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has factored in the winter - storage replenishment, the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [13] 3. Alloys - Silicomanganese: The cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand remains loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the futures price. However, the current futures price has fallen to a low level, and the further downward space is limited under the cost support, with the price expected to operate at a low level around the cost valuation [3][16] - Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand is weak, the fundamental contradiction is limited, but the poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [3][17] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply has expectations of disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3][14] - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand is in oversupply. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][14][16] 5. Steel - The spot market trading is average, the profitability of steel mills is improving, the iron - water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the production of the five major steel products has remained stable. During the off - season, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is emerging. Based on the subsequent resumption of production by steel mills and winter - storage replenishment, the downside space of furnace materials is limited, and the cost side has support. However, due to the inventory accumulation pressure and lack of fundamental highlights, the futures market faces upward pressure, and it is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [8] 6. Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index increased by 1.13% to 2503.03, the Commodity 20 Index increased by 1.44% to 2879.55, the industrial products index increased by 0.40% to 2369.84, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.19% to 1461.06 [102] - Plate Index: The steel industry chain index on January 26, 2026, was 1989.86, with a daily decline of 0.36%, a 5 - day increase of 0.93%, a 1 - month increase of 0.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.70% [103]