中加贸易顾虑，菜油显著上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for various agricultural commodities: - Oils and Fats: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [4][7]. - Protein Meal: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [9][11]. - Corn/Starch: Expected to fluctuate [12]. - Hogs: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short - term, and the price is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [13]. - Natural Rubber: Expected to fluctuate, with a mid - term strategy of buying on dips [16]. - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias in the mid - term [19]. - Cotton: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, suggesting buying on dips [20]. - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [20]. - Pulp: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [21][23]. - Offset Paper: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [24]. - Logs: Expected to fluctuate within a range [25]. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural commodities. Overall, the market is influenced by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, international trade, and weather. There are opportunities for short - term trading and mid - to long - term investment strategies in different commodities, but also risks associated with market fluctuations [4][7][9][11][12][13][16][19][20][21][23][24][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - View: Concerns over China - Canada trade relations led to a significant increase in rapeseed oil prices. Overall, the upward trend of vegetable oils was supported by rising crude oil prices and positive fundamental expectations [1][6]. - Logic: Rapeseed oil was affected by Trump's tariff remarks, raising concerns about future rapeseed supply. The 2025/26 Canadian rapeseed production was a record high, but exports were expected to decrease. For soybeans, the US biodiesel policy provided emotional support. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in January 2026, while exports increased, with favorable export expectations [1][6]. - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Suggest considering buying on dips for hedging and a long - palm oil, short - rapeseed oil arbitrage strategy [4][7]. 2. Protein Meal - View: Pre - holiday stocking led to an increase in the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [9]. - Logic: Internationally, the market sentiment was positive for US soybeans due to potential Chinese purchases and the US biodiesel policy, but the Brazilian soybean harvest and increased supply expectations were negative factors. Domestically, oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories were high, and the price of soybean meal was expected to be under pressure. The price of rapeseed meal was expected to fluctuate [9]. - Outlook: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [9][11]. 3. Corn/Starch - View: The market was influenced by both positive and negative factors and was expected to fluctuate [12]. - Logic: The supply was in a tight balance. The pre - holiday selling pressure was not large, and the feed enterprises' inventory could cover the Spring Festival. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory increased, but the demand was weak. The substitution of grains and policy grain auctions also affected the market [12]. - Outlook: Expected to fluctuate. The market was in a state with an upper limit and a lower limit [12]. 4. Hogs - View: The reduction in slaughter orders led to a decline in hog prices [13]. - Logic: In the short - term, the supply pressure was increasing due to slow - paced January slaughter and the entry of second - fattening pigs. In the medium - term, the supply would be excessive until April 2026. In the long - term, the supply pressure was expected to ease after May 2026. The demand was weak, and the inventory was increasing [13]. - Outlook: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short - term. The industry was advised to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The hog cycle was expected to bottom out in the second half of 2026 [13]. 5. Natural Rubber - View: The price faced significant pressure from previous highs [16]. - Logic: After being driven up by synthetic rubber, the price of natural rubber fluctuated sideways. The supply was relatively abundant, and the demand was not strong, with a fast inventory build - up. However, it was supported by the positive sentiment in the chemical sector [16]. - Outlook: The fundamental variables were limited, and it was difficult to break through the previous high. It was recommended to buy on dips in the mid - term, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate widely [16]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - View: The operating logic remained unchanged, and the price was expected to be strong [19]. - Logic: The market was trading on the expectation of a tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. The rotation of commodity funds to the chemical sector also had a positive impact. The price of butadiene was rising due to limited supply and strong demand [19]. - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene was expected to improve, but there was short - term pressure. The mid - term trend was expected to be upward [19]. 7. Cotton - View: The cotton price fluctuated and adjusted, lacking new positive factors in the short - term [20]. - Logic: The cotton inspection was almost finished. The import of cotton and cotton yarn increased, and the downstream stocking increased. The commercial inventory was accumulating, but the overall apparent consumption was good. In the long - term, the supply might be tight, but there was short - term resistance [20]. - Outlook: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. It was recommended to buy on dips [20]. 8. Sugar - View: There was support at the bottom, but the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [20]. - Logic: Globally, the sugar market was expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. All major producing countries were expected to increase production, putting pressure on sugar prices. The current valuation was relatively low, and the price was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [20]. - Outlook: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. It was recommended to short on rebounds [20]. 9. Pulp - View: The price of hardwood pulp continued to decline, and the pulp fundamentals were weak [21]. - Logic: The demand for pulp decreased as the downstream production declined. The demand feedback was more significant for hardwood pulp. The main positive factor was the rising US dollar price of pulp, while there were more negative factors such as seasonal demand weakness and abundant supply [21]. - Outlook: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [21][23]. 10. Offset Paper - View: There was no positive driving force, and the price was expected to be weak [24]. - Logic: The supply was abundant, and the high pulp cost squeezed profits. The market demand was weak, and the price increase was difficult to pass on. The industry's production might decrease, and the trading volume was expected to weaken [24]. - Outlook: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. The spot price was expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and the price was expected to fluctuate within a range [24]. 11. Logs - View: The spot price in Lanshan increased, and the price was expected to be strong within a range [25]. - Logic: The log market first declined and then rebounded. The next - period overseas quotation was expected to increase. The delivery pressure decreased, and the spot supply in Jiangsu was tight. The price was expected to be strong in the short - term [25]. - Outlook: Expected to fluctuate within a range. The negative factors were digested, and the spot price increase might boost market sentiment [25]. 12. Commodity Index - On January 26, 2026: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the 20 - commodity index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index), and agricultural product index all showed increases. The agricultural product index had a daily increase of 0.54%, a 5 - day increase of 1.27%, a 1 - month increase of 2.37%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.40% [189][190].