美元指数破位下行，基本金属再获提振

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating and Core View - The overall view of the non-ferrous metals industry is that the breakdown of the US dollar index provides a boost to base metals. In the short and medium term, high inventories put pressure on prices, but the logic of a weak US dollar and supply disruption concerns remains. In the long term, there are expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to lead to tighter supply - demand conditions. The report suggests paying attention to opportunities for low - absorption and long - position in copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. [1] Group 2: Analysis of Each Metal Copper - View: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][6] - Logic: In 2026, the Fed may continue to be loose, providing support to copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tightening, and the processing fees for long - term contracts in 2026 are at a record low, strengthening the expectation of supply contraction in refined copper. Although terminal demand is weak during the off - season and inventory is accumulating, the future supply - demand is expected to be tighter. [6] Alumina - View: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuate, with a medium - term outlook of oscillation. [2][7] - Logic: High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient. China is still in a strong inventory - building trend. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are weak, and the cost support is limited. However, as the valuation enters a low - level range, price fluctuations may increase. [7] Aluminum - View: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level, with a short - term outlook of being volatile and bullish, and a medium - term outlook of the price center rising. [2][9] - Logic: The macro - environment is positive, with expectations of US interest rate cuts and the implementation of China's "Two New" policies. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, but there are supply constraints overseas. High aluminum prices suppress demand in the short term, but overall, the short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. [10] Aluminum Alloy - View: Cost support continues, and the market fluctuates at a high level, with a short - and medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][11] - Logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate has increased, but there may be supply constraints from policies. Demand is mainly for rigid needs in the short term, and the "old - for - new" policy for cars is expected to support demand in the medium term. [11] Zinc - View: The sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector has improved, and zinc prices have stabilized and rebounded, with an overall outlook of oscillation. [2][12] - Logic: Although US economic data has pushed up the US dollar, the expectation of a weak US dollar remains. Zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and refinery profits are declining. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, but zinc exports are expected to continue, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has room to decline. In the long term, zinc supply is expected to increase while demand growth is limited. [13] Lead - View: Social inventory is accumulating, but the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is good, and lead prices fluctuate, with an outlook of oscillation. [2][17] - Logic: The spot premium has decreased, and the production of lead ingots has increased slightly. The demand for electric bicycles is weak, but the demand for automotive batteries is improving. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is still at a relatively high level compared to previous years. [17] Nickel - View: Policy expectations compete with the weak reality, and nickel prices fluctuate, with an outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][18] - Logic: The supply of nickel is under pressure, and demand is in the traditional off - season, with an overall oversupply in the fundamentals. Indonesia's potential policy changes regarding nickel ore pricing and quotas have adjusted market expectations, and continuous follow - up is needed. [19] Stainless Steel - View: Nickel - iron prices are firm, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates, with an outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][20] - Logic: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the recovery of nickel - iron prices. The production in December decreased, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly. Terminal demand is cautious, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in the off - season. [21] Tin - View: Supply - demand tension continues, and tin prices are bullish, with an outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][21] - Logic: Supply issues are the key factors. Although the supply situation in Wa State may improve, short - term supply in Indonesia is restricted, and the landslide in Congo (Kinshasa) has increased supply concerns. On the demand side, the global economy is expected to improve, and the demand for tin in semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing. [22] Group 3: Market Index Monitoring - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index is 2503.03, up 1.13%; the commodity 20 index is 2879.55, up 1.44%; the industrial product index is 2369.84, up 0.40%. [148] - Non - ferrous Metal Index: On January 26, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index is 2830.27, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a 5 - day increase of 1.31%, a 1 - month increase of 7.62%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.37%. [150]