地缘扰动叠加美元走弱，铂钯显著上行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently affected by geopolitical disturbances and a weak US dollar, platinum and palladium prices have significantly increased with the precious metals sector [1]. - The short - term trends of platinum and palladium are expected to be oscillatingly strong, and investors can consider low - buying opportunities, but should be wary of increased short - term price volatility [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 744.7 yuan/gram, with a 9.68% increase [1]. - Main logic: Geopolitical and trade frictions have damaged market confidence in US government policy stability and US dollar credit. The strengthening of the Japanese yen has also pressured the US dollar. The nomination of the new Fed chairman and US tariff expectations for platinum and palladium are key market factors. In the future, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify long - term price elasticity [2]. - Outlook: Oscillatingly strong, as the supply - demand fundamentals are healthy and the macro - expectations are positive [2]. Palladium - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 534.8 yuan/gram, with a 7.17% increase [1]. - Main logic: Besides the weak US dollar and geopolitical disturbances, the supply side has significant uncertainties. The US Department of Commerce's report on unforged palladium imported from Russia has not been released, and the spot shortage continues to support prices. In the short term, palladium shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's re - entry into the interest rate cut cycle support the bottom of the palladium price [3]. - Outlook: Oscillatingly strong, due to the spot shortage and relatively favorable macro - environment [3]. Index Information - On January 26, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities was presented, including the commodity index (2503.03, +1.13%), the commodity 20 index (2879.55, +1.44%), and the industrial products index (2369.84, +0.40%) [49]. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 26, 2026, had a daily increase of +0.07%, a 5 - day increase of +1.31%, a 1 - month increase of +7.62%, and a year - to - date increase of +5.37% [51].