化工驱动，V强势上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC price is relatively strong. Next week, domestic production is expected to decline further, while some downstream enterprises are having pre - holiday promotions, leading to increased production. Export is expected to remain strong. Considering that some downstream enterprises are starting to take holidays and the price of raw material calcium carbide is falling, the PVC market is expected to maintain a strong trend [3]. - For trading strategies: go long at low prices but do not chase high prices for single - side trading; hold off on arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Market outlook: PVC price is strong. Supply may decline slightly as Fujian Wanhua and Shandong Hengtong are under maintenance. Domestic downstream production is expected to decline, but some large enterprises' pre - holiday promotions boost production. Export remains strong due to cold wave news stimulating foreign inquiries. The price of ethylene in US dollars has limited upward potential, and the calcium carbide market is expected to rise strongly next week [3]. - Trading strategy: Single - side trading: low - long, do not chase high; Arbitrage: wait - and - see; Over - the - counter: wait - and - see [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Core data changes: This week, PVC prices fluctuated after rising. The spot supply - demand fundamentals were weak, and inventory increased. Supported by positive economic expectations and bullish commodity outlooks, PVC prices rose during the week. The production of PVC enterprises was 48.21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.11% (0.54 tons). The industry inventory was 150.98 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.82% (2.7 tons). The average weekly trading volume was 1.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65 tons. The downstream production enterprises' operating rate was 44.86%, a week - on - week increase of 0.95%. The export order volume of PVC production enterprises increased by 1.08% week - on - week to 6.57 tons [4]. - Supply analysis - Enterprise production by process: Not detailed in the provided content. - Enterprise pre - sales by process: Not detailed in the provided content. - Enterprise capacity utilization by process: Not detailed in the provided content. - Raw material source weekly production data difference: Not detailed in the provided content. - Maintenance enterprises statistics: In January, multiple enterprises such as Shandong Dongyue, Wuhai Chemical, and others had maintenance plans, with some due to high - cost reasons and others due to other factors like park influence. In February, Taiwan Formosa Plastics plans to have a two - week maintenance [16]. - Production enterprise production increase plans: Multiple enterprises in different provinces have production increase plans with different schedules, such as Zhejiang Jiajiaxingcheng New Materials may start production in the first half of 2026, and Huayi's second - phase project is planned after 2028 [17]. - Cost analysis - Raw material cost historical comparison: Not detailed in the provided content. - Raw material gross profit historical comparison: Not detailed in the provided content. - Inventory analysis - Production enterprise inventory by process/region: Not detailed in the provided content. - PVC social inventory/industry inventory: The social inventory was 117.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.92% [4]. - Demand analysis - Product enterprise production and inventory: The downstream product enterprises' production rate increased, and the raw material inventory available days increased by 0.1 days to 13.90 days. Some enterprises made small purchases at low prices and had some pre - holiday stockpiling [4].