特朗普提高对韩国商品关税，国内促进服务消费政策即将推出

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's statement that he does not rule out the possibility of reaching a diplomatic agreement with Iran has led to a short - term decline in risk - aversion sentiment and an increase in market risk appetite. The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - The upcoming policy to promote service consumption may have an impact on the A - share market. The market is currently in a state of rapid rotation, and the overall risk is controllable. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures [17]. - The long - term bearish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. Although there is a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short after the upward momentum fades [20]. - The steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to hedge on rallies. The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The动力煤 market is expected to have strong price support. The iron ore market is expected to be weak in February [23][25][27][28]. - The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in South American production areas. The vegetable oil market is affected by various factors, and it is not recommended to take unilateral positions in rapeseed oil. Attention can be paid to arbitrage strategies [29][33]. - The lead price is expected to remain in low - level consolidation. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The zinc price can be considered for buying on dips, with caution in chasing up. The lithium carbonate price is likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, and long - biased strategies can be adopted with attention to risk control [34][40][45]. - The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to supply recovery and consumption improvement [49][53]. - Oil prices are affected by geopolitical situations. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [54][57]. - The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a possible further correction around the Spring Festival. Low - buying opportunities for the 05 contract can be considered after the relative valuation provides a safety margin [60]. - The styrene price may deviate from the industrial logic in the short term due to the intensification of short - squeeze sentiment. It is recommended to shift from low - buying to cautious waiting. The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited. The caustic soda near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited, while the far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips [63][65][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump will raise the tariff rate on a variety of South Korean goods to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's failure to approve and implement the previous trade agreement [10]. - Trump does not completely rule out the possibility of resolving the Iranian issue through diplomacy, leading to a short - term decline in risk - aversion sentiment and an increase in market risk appetite. The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - Investment advice: The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced an increase in the tariff rate on South Korean goods to 25%. - The US durable goods orders in November increased by 5.3% month - on - month, exceeding market expectations, mainly driven by aircraft orders. The market risk appetite has marginally improved. - Investment advice: During the earnings season, US stocks are expected to be more volatile and maintain high - level consolidation [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Policies to promote service consumption are即将推出. The A - share market is in a state of rapid rotation, with overall controllable risk. - Investment advice: Continue to hold long positions in stock index futures [18]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 780 million yuan on the day. - The long - term bearish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. Although there is a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short after the upward momentum fades. - Investment advice: Short the bonds after the upward momentum fades [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Policies to optimize consumer goods replacement and promote the consumption of large - scale durable goods such as automobiles will be implemented. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to hedge on rallies in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy and hedge on rallies [24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is fluctuating, with prices rising and falling. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. - Investment advice: The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [25]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The FOB price of Indonesian Q3800 Panamax steam coal is maintained at $50 - 51 per ton. The price is expected to have strong support in the short term. - Investment advice: The steam coal price is expected to have strong support due to seasonal supply decline and high demand in February [27]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore market of MGX Resources showed a divergence in production and sales in the fourth quarter. The iron ore price is expected to be weak in February. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to be weak in February [28]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased last week. The futures price is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in South American production areas [30]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil production in Malaysia from January 1 - 25 decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, and exports increased by 7.97% month - on - month. The rapeseed oil market is affected by the uncertainty of China - Canada relations. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to take unilateral positions in rapeseed oil. Attention can be paid to arbitrage strategies [33]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $44.56 per ton on January 23. The domestic lead ingot inventory increased. The lead price is expected to remain in low - level consolidation. - Investment advice: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [36]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - South 32's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 increased by 25% quarter - on - quarter, and 29Metals' zinc production in Q4 increased by 72% quarter - on - quarter. The domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased. - Investment advice: Buy on dips for unilateral positions, with caution in chasing up. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [40]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will introduce overseas traders to lithium carbonate futures and options. Sigma Lithium sold 100,000 tons of high - purity lithium ore concentrate powder. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - biased strategy, look for low - buying opportunities after the position volume and volatility stabilize, and pay attention to risk control [45]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The roadblock in the Escondida copper mining area in Chile has been lifted. Zangge Mining's subsidiary's copper mine phase - II project was put into operation. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $245 per ton on January 23. The exchange strengthened risk prevention and control. The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. - Investment advice: The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to supply recovery and consumption improvement [53]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is preparing to resume production. Oil prices are affected by geopolitical situations. - Investment advice: Pay attention to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation [55]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery inventory decreased, while the social inventory increased. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. - Investment advice: The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical changes [57]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased. The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a possible further correction around the Spring Festival. - Investment advice: The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term. Consider low - buying the 05 contract after the relative valuation provides a safety margin [60]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The styrene inventory in East China ports increased. The styrene price may deviate from the industrial logic in the short term due to short - squeeze sentiment. - Investment advice: Shift from low - buying to cautious waiting for styrene. The far - end expectation game of pure benzene may not end [63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price increased. The PVC export tax - rebate policy will be cancelled on April 1. The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited. - Investment advice: The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price in Shandong decreased. The caustic soda market has high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited, while the far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips. - Investment advice: The near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited. The far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips [67].