2025年报业绩预告前瞻：进入复苏的盈利周期

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the economic growth center is shifting upwards, driven by AI and overseas expansion, with cyclical sectors benefiting from supply constraints and downstream demand transformation [1][3] - The report highlights four structural characteristics of profit growth in Q4 2025: 1) Emerging economies remain the main high-growth area; 2) Profit share of mid- and downstream manufacturing is increasing; 3) Large and mid-cap companies show greater earnings growth elasticity; 4) High-tech export remains robust [3][4][5] Group 2 - Macro signals show an increase in new economic activity, with inflation and PMI improving significantly in Q4 2025, indicating structural improvements in the economy [6][11] - The growth structure reveals an upstream recovery, resilient midstream, and strong performance in downstream service consumption, with profits in advanced manufacturing continuing to grow rapidly [25][26] - The report notes that the penetration of AI in emerging technologies is driving demand in various sectors, while Chinese companies are accelerating their overseas expansion [5][6][14] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on low-crowded sectors with upward revisions in profit expectations, such as non-bank financials, batteries, electronics, machinery, and commercial vehicles [4][5][6] - It highlights that the CPI-PPI gap is widening, allowing for smoother cost transmission to mid- and downstream industries, which is expected to enhance profit margins [11][12] - The report also points out that high-tech product exports are showing strong growth, particularly in emerging markets, which are becoming increasingly significant for China's export landscape [14][15][18]