Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of black series products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The actual terminal demand for steel remains weak, and the short - term macro - level is in a policy window period. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils, the possible marginal strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2]. - The iron ore price fluctuates in the short term. Overseas shipments are entering the off - season, and the supply pressure is marginally reduced. The inventory structural problem is not solved. The pre - holiday purchase by steel mills provides some support. The production rhythm of hot metal is affected by safety supervision. Attention should be paid to the restocking of steel mills and the production rhythm of hot metal [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the overall sentiment of the commodity market is expected to be bullish. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, the cost increase of manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The supply - demand structure is relatively loose, and the short - term restocking may not drive the price strongly. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and high - volatility risks [15]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. There is an expectation of improved supply - demand, and attention should be paid to the production reduction of large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. - For polysilicon, the "anti - involution" expectation is unclear. The supply is expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to terminal demand feedback and policy adjustments [20][21]. - The glass market lacks substantial positive drivers and is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [26]. - The soda ash market is in a relatively loose supply - demand pattern and is expected to continue to operate weakly in the short term [28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel 行情资讯 - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3143 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.031%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 17,283 tons, a decrease of 1,204 tons from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.7309 million lots, a decrease of 10,906 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3302 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 179,126 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.5148 million lots, an increase of 27,500 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 策略观点 - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both declined, and the inventory level is gradually decreasing and approaching a relatively reasonable range. For rebar, the output has increased against the seasonal trend, the apparent demand has continued to weaken, and the inventory has begun to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure is still limited [2]. Iron Ore 行情资讯 - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 784.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.32% (- 10.50). The open interest changed by - 636 lots to 568,200 lots. The weighted open interest of iron ore was 924,200 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 57.96 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.88% [4]. 策略观点 - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period have increased slightly. The shipments from Australia have increased, and those from Brazil have remained basically stable. Among the mainstream mines, the shipments of three Australian mines have increased, while Vale's shipments have decreased slightly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries have declined from the high level. The recent arrival volume has continued to decline. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal output in the latest period was 228.10 tons, a slight increase. The复产 blast furnaces are mainly those that have resumed production after regular maintenance, and there is blast furnace maintenance in Inner Mongolia. The profitability rate of steel mills has continued to improve, rising to more than 40%. In the inventory, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, which suppresses the absolute price. The inventory of imported ore in steel mills has continued to rise, and the pre - holiday restocking continues. Overall, the iron ore price fluctuates in the short term, and attention should be paid to the restocking of steel mills and the production rhythm of hot metal [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon 行情资讯 - On January 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed down 0.48% at 5828 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5910 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 82 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.42% at 5628 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 172 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. 策略观点 - The explosion accident at Baogang Plate Factory last week led to the shutdown and maintenance of some production capacities and concerns about safety inspections. The resumption of hot metal production was inhibited, which dragged down the demand for furnace materials. After the market sentiment eased, there was a certain rebound. In the future, the overall sentiment of the commodity market is expected to be bullish, but the main contradiction in the market is currently concentrated in precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and lithium carbonate. The black sector currently lacks capital interest. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and for ferrosilicon, it is basically balanced. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, the cost increase of manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke 行情资讯 - On January 26, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 0.22% at 1159.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1589.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the converted futures price was 1400 yuan/ton, with a premium of 240.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the converted futures price was 1284 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Jinquan Industrial Park was 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the converted futures price was 1209 yuan/ton, with a premium of 49.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.17% at 1719.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1460 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the converted futures price was 1715 yuan/ton, with a discount of 4 yuan/ton to the futures price. The price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the converted futures price was 1710.5 yuan/ton, with a discount of 8.5 yuan/ton to the futures price [12]. 策略观点 - The explosion accident at Baogang Plate Factory last week led to the shutdown and maintenance of some production capacities and concerns about safety inspections. The resumption of hot metal production was inhibited, which dragged down the demand for furnace materials. After the market sentiment eased, there was a certain rebound. In the future, the overall sentiment of the commodity market is expected to be bullish, but the main contradiction in the market is currently concentrated in precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and lithium carbonate. The black sector currently lacks capital interest. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. The short - term restocking may not drive the price strongly. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and high - volatility risks [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 行情资讯 - Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8915 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.08% (+ 95). The weighted open interest changed by + 22,646 lots to 397,436 lots. In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 285 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 65 yuan/ton [17]. 策略观点 - Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon opened higher and closed in the red. In terms of supply, most production enterprises in Sichuan have shut down their furnaces, the number of operating furnaces of integrated enterprises in Inner Mongolia has continued to decrease, and the number of operating furnaces in Xinjiang has remained stable, with the weekly output continuing to decline. In terms of demand, the production reduction plans of leading polysilicon enterprises are being gradually implemented, the weekly output of silicone has decreased slightly, and the overall demand for industrial silicon is weakening. If the production reduction of a large factory in Xinjiang is implemented, the supply is expected to decrease significantly, and the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to change from relatively loose to inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the production reduction of large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. 行情资讯 - Polysilicon - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 51,280 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.10% (+ 560). The weighted open interest changed by - 363 lots to 76,156 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 53.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 54 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 2720 yuan/ton for the main contract [19]. 策略观点 - Polysilicon - The "anti - involution" expectation in the industry is unclear, and the wait - and - see attitude continues. In the spot market, the silicon material sector remains in a stalemate. Downstream silicon wafer factories continue to delay their purchasing rhythm due to high prices, while upstream enterprises maintain high prices but have few actual transactions. Some spot - futures traders sell at low prices, and the overall price has loosened slightly. The price of terminal components continues to rise, the overall operation rate of the battery sector is not high, and the price of the silicon wafer sector is differentiated. The supply of polysilicon is expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. The open interest and liquidity of polysilicon futures have fallen to a relatively low level since listing. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to terminal demand feedback and policy adjustments [20][21]. Glass and Soda Ash 行情资讯 - Glass - At 15:00 on Monday, the main contract of glass closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 2.16% (+ 23). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1010 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1090 yuan, up 30 yuan from the previous day. On January 23, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.2158 million cases, up 202,800 cases (+ 0.38%) from the previous week. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 33,392 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 61,787 lots [25]. 策略观点 - Glass - The market sentiment was relatively weak last week. Affected by insufficient orders from downstream deep - processing enterprises, weak restocking willingness, and seasonal factors approaching the Spring Festival, the terminal demand was weak. The inventory in most regions increased slightly or remained stable, and the inventory reduction rhythm lacked sustainability. The glass market lacks substantial positive drivers, and market participants mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 1035 - 1130 yuan/ton [26]. 行情资讯 - Soda Ash - At 15:00 on Monday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1205 yuan/ton, up 0.58% (+ 7). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1165 yuan, up 7 yuan from the previous day. On January 23, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5212 million tons, down 53,800 tons (- 3.42%). Among them, the inventory of heavy soda ash was 696,700 tons, down 41,300 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 824,500 tons, down 12,500 tons. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 2841 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 1736 lots [27]. 策略观点 - Soda Ash - The supply - demand pattern of the soda ash market was generally loose last week. The supply was abundant, while the downstream demand was weak, and the purchasing attitude was cautious, mainly replenishing inventory on demand, which provided limited support for the spot price. The market lacks substantial positive drivers, the futures market fluctuates weakly, and the spot market sentiment is affected. The soda ash market is expected to continue to operate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1230 yuan/ton [28].
黑色建材日报-20260127
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-27 01:12