国新国证期货早报-20260127

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 26, 2026 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to 4132.61, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.85% to 14316.64, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.91% to 3319.15. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 328.1 billion yuan, an increase of 16.27 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Stock Indices: The CSI 300 index fluctuated slightly, closing at 4706.96, up 4.47 [2]. - Futures: - Coke: The weighted index of coke fluctuated and closed at 1721.1, up 7.4 [2]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated slightly and closed at 1166.2 yuan, up 15.8 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated slightly lower due to the decline of US sugar on Friday and stable spot prices. At night, it continued to decline slightly under short - selling pressure [4]. - Rubber: Shanghai rubber fluctuated and adjusted due to large short - term gains. At night, it continued to fluctuate and closed slightly lower [4]. - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1060 cents per bushel, down 0.7%. The domestic soybean meal main contract M2505 closed at 2768 yuan per ton, down 0.65% [5]. - Live Pigs: The live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11465 yuan per ton, down 0.86% [5]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil futures price continued to rise with increased positions, breaking through the 9000 integer mark. The main contract P2605 closed at 9092, up 2.04% [5]. - Shanghai Copper: The Shanghai copper closed at 101880 yuan per ton, with an opening price of 102800, a high of 103880, a low of 101760, and a settlement price of 102760 [5]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14580 yuan per ton at night, with an increase of 172 lots in inventory [5]. - Logs: The log 2603 main contract opened at 779.5, with a low of 773, a high of 779.5, and closed at 776, with a decrease of 1129 lots in positions [5]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore 2605 main contract fluctuated and closed down 0.95% at 784.5 yuan [7]. - Asphalt: The asphalt 2603 main contract fluctuated and rose 1.39% to close at 3279 yuan [7]. - Steel: The rb2605 closed at 3143 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3302 yuan per ton [7]. - Alumina: The ao2605 closed at 2732 yuan per ton [7]. - Shanghai Aluminum: The al2603 closed at 24215 yuan per ton [7]. 2. Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The expectation of the first - round price increase is strengthening, with wet - quenched coke expected to increase by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton. Iron production increased slightly, but the recovery was limited due to previous accidents [4]. - Coking Coal: Mines resumed production after the Spring Festival, and the output of sample mines rebounded, with the pre - holiday output expected to have peaked. Mongolian coal port transactions were average, and the port inventory exceeded 3.9 million tons. In 2025, China's total import of coking coal was 118 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.66%. In December 2025, the import volume was 13.7698 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% but a year - on - year increase of 28.57%. In 2025, China's total export of coke was 794.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.53%. In December 2025, the export volume was 1.0045 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39.95% and a year - on - year increase of 80.18% [4]. Soybean Meal - International: The US soybean export sales reached a record high this year, but the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was lower than the five - year average, and the dry weather in southern Argentina raised concerns about crop conditions. - Domestic: The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills exceeded 2 million tons, increasing soybean meal output. Pre - holiday stocking demand started, but the soybean meal futures price lacked continuous upward momentum due to expected sufficient post - holiday soybean supply. It is recommended to track South American weather and soybean arrivals [5]. Live Pigs - Supply: The slaughter rhythm of farmers accelerated. Although the monthly slaughter plan of group pig enterprises decreased, the actual slaughter level remained high, and many large - scale pig enterprises cut prices to sell. Some farmers may advance the February slaughter to January. - Demand: Southern pickling is coming to an end, reducing the demand for large pigs. Cold snap boosted pork consumption, and pre - holiday stocking started, but the medium - term supply pressure remains high. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the actual demand during the peak season [5]. Palm Oil - High - frequency data shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 25, 2026, compared to the same period last month, with an increase of 7.97% according to AmSpec and 9.97% according to ITS [5]. Shanghai Copper - Macro expectations are positive, and the low TC of the ore end and tight inventory support the cost. However, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs before the Spring Festival, and the consumption off - season restricts price elasticity. Speculative sentiment is restricted by a 10% margin and an 8% price limit [5]. Logs - The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced. It is recommended to pay attention to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7]. Iron Ore - The shipments from Australia and Brazil and domestic arrivals decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. Steel mills still have pre - holiday replenishment needs, and iron production increased slightly. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Asphalt - The overall refinery supply remains low, and the inventory accumulates slightly but is controllable. The demand is weak due to cold weather. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Steel - The fundamentals are stable, and the supply - demand balance and healthy inventory support the price. However, the winter storage policies of steel mills will affect market sentiment and speculative demand, causing short - term price fluctuations. The price of construction steel will be adjusted in the context of weakening terminal demand [7]. Alumina - The operating capacity remains high, but the low spot price deteriorates corporate profits. Some alumina plants in Guizhou may conduct pre - maintenance. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited. The spot market has strong sales, with active morning trading and cautious afternoon trading [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase, and the demand shows signs of stabilization. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has rebounded slightly, but the inventory continues to accumulate, and the demand for molten aluminum is still weak. The aluminum price is expected to consolidate in the short term [7].