棕榈油：多重因素影响，高位震荡豆油：美国45Z补贴落地在即，油粕比回升豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或跟随调整

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Palm oil is expected to experience high - level fluctuations due to multiple factors [2][4]. - For soybean oil, the US 45Z subsidy is about to be implemented, and the oil - meal ratio is expected to rise [2][4]. - Overnight, US soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal futures may follow the adjustment [2][9]. - The spot price of soybeans is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures market is in an adjustment and volatile state [2][9]. - Corn is expected to show a slightly upward trend in a volatile manner [2][12]. - Sugar is mainly in a low - level consolidation phase [2][16]. - Cotton is in a consolidation phase, waiting for new driving factors [2][20]. - Before the Spring Festival, the spot price of eggs is strong due to the peak season [2][26]. - The demand during the peak season for hogs is lower than expected, and supply contradictions are emerging [2][29]. - Peanuts are expected to move in a volatile manner [2][33]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,092 yuan/ton with a 2.04% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,162 yuan/ton with a 0.77% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,226 yuan/ton with a 1.63% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,202 yuan/ton with a - 0.29% decrease [4]. - News: Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43%. Brazil's soybean sowing rate as of January 24 was 99.1%, and the harvesting rate was 6.6%. Argentina is facing drought, which may affect soybean production [5][7]. - Trend Intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybeans - Fundamentals: DCE soybean meal 2605's daily - session closing price was 2,769 yuan/ton with a 0.36% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2,768 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase. DCE soybeans 2605's daily - session closing price was 4,384 yuan/ton with a 0.62% increase, and the night - session closing price was 4,364 yuan/ton with a - 0.71% decrease [9]. - News: On January 26, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the upward adjustment of Brazil's soybean production forecast and concerns about China's future purchases. AgRural raised Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast by 600,000 tons to 181 million tons [9][11]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of soybean meal is - 1, and that of soybeans is 0 [11]. Corn - Fundamentals: The closing price of C2603 was 2,293 yuan/ton with a - 0.22% daily decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,287 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% decrease. The closing price of C2605 was 2,290 yuan/ton with a 0.09% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 2,284 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% decrease [13]. - News: The northern corn bulk shipping port price is 2300 - 2310 yuan/ton, and the container - shipped first - class grain port price is 2330 - 2350 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton higher than last Friday [14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of corn is 1 [15]. Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price is 14.79 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price is 5,290 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price is 5,172 yuan/ton [16]. - News: As of January 15, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 22% year - on - year. Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December, an increase of 190,000 tons [16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [19]. Cotton - Fundamentals: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,650 yuan/ton with a - 0.31% daily decrease, and the night - session closing price was 14,580 yuan/ton with a - 0.48% decrease. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,515 yuan/ton with a 0.05% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 20,435 yuan/ton with a - 0.39% decrease [20]. - News: The cotton spot trading is generally light, and the basis is mostly stable. The cotton textile market is also in a weak state, with some downstream factories starting to take holidays [21]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of cotton is 1 [24]. Eggs - Fundamentals: The closing price of egg 2602 was 3,069 yuan/500 kg with a 0.33% increase, and the closing price of egg 2603 was 3,069 yuan/500 kg with a 0.16% increase [26]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [27]. Hogs - Fundamentals: The Henan spot price is 13,180 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 12,950 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price is 13,360 yuan/ton. The price of hog 2603 futures is 11,465 yuan/ton, the price of hog 2605 futures is 11,760 yuan/ton, and the price of hog 2607 futures is 12,425 yuan/ton [30]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of hogs is - 2 [31]. Peanuts - Fundamentals: The closing price of PK603 was 8,042 yuan/ton with a 0.63% increase, and the closing price of PK605 was 7,900 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase [33]. - News: In the spot market, the supply of peanuts in various regions is not large, and the prices are generally stable [34]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [35].