华泰证券今日早参-20260127

Macro Insights - The Japanese yen has appreciated by 2.6% to 154.2 yen/USD over two trading days, driven by signals of potential joint intervention by the US and Japan regarding interest rates [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts in its upcoming meeting, maintaining the guidance from December with limited new information [3] Fixed Income - Concerns regarding banks' liability pressures and long-term bond absorption capabilities have eased since the beginning of the year, indicating a potential recovery in the bond market [4] Energy Sector - Geopolitical tensions in regions like Venezuela and Iran have raised supply risk concerns, leading to a rise in WTI and Brent crude prices by 6.4% and 8.3% respectively since the end of December [6] - The average price forecast for Brent crude in 2026 has been raised to $65 per barrel, supported by demand recovery and inventory accumulation [6] Technology Sector - The emergence of Agentic Coding is expanding AI development capabilities from simple programming to more complex applications, with a focus on project-level rather than file-level interactions [4] - The introduction of Claude CoWork is expected to lower development barriers, allowing non-technical users to create project-level code repositories [4] Strategy Insights - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD by over 4% in 2025 is expected to continue in 2026, positively impacting AH equities, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals and healthcare services [9] - Fund holdings analysis indicates a shift towards cyclical and AI-related stocks, with a significant reduction in redemption pressure on actively managed equity funds [10] Company-Specific Insights - Qing Song Co., a leading cosmetics OEM, is showing signs of recovery with a revenue growth rate of 20.2% year-on-year in Q4 2025, following a period of losses due to industry downturns [11] - Xin Da Zheng is planning a major acquisition to enhance scale and business extension, which could lead to significant benefits if successfully executed [12]