宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-27-20260127

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The short - term view of crude oil 2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of weak operation. The core logic is that geopolitical risks have cooled, and crude oil is oscillating weakly. Also, due to the weak supply - demand fundamentals temporarily overriding geopolitical risk sentiment, domestic crude oil futures are expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Tuesday [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Price Movement Rules - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price, used to calculate the increase or decrease [2] - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, 0 - 1% is weakly declined, an increase of 0 - 1% is weakly increased, and an increase of more than 1% is strong. The weak/strong categorization only applies to the intraday view, not the short - term and medium - term views [3][4] Driving Logic for Crude Oil Price - Recently, US President Trump has frequently released geopolitical risk signals. With the US military aircraft carrier reaching the Middle East and Iran's tough stance, there may be a new round of military conflict between the US and Iran, threatening Middle East crude oil exports. However, Trump's signal of easing has led to the weak supply - demand fundamentals of the oil market overriding the geopolitical risk sentiment, causing a partial retracement of previous gains in domestic and international crude oil futures prices on Monday night [5]