尿素日报-20260127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The inventory reduction and demand recovery provide bottom support for the urea market, but the high operating rate and low spot prices limit the upward space of futures prices. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of enterprise inventory reduction, whether the compound fertilizer operating rate can exceed 45%, and the dynamics of export policies. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main urea contract fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1,776 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. The futures price was higher than the spot price, but the basis narrowed slightly. The inventory continued to decline and demand recovered, providing support. The market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. [2] 3.2 Influencing Factors - The industry operating rate was 86.39%, maintaining a high level, with a daily output of 205,100 tons, indicating sufficient supply. However, enterprise inventories have been decreasing for two consecutive weeks, with 946,000 tons of inventory, a decrease of 40,100 tons from the previous week. In regions such as Inner Mongolia, shipments accelerated due to demand from the Northeast. - The operating rate of compound fertilizer rebounded to 42.96%, and the operating rate of melamine was 62.18%, indicating a recovery in industrial demand. On the agricultural side, the procurement of winter and spring fertilizers started, and off - season storage continued, supporting rigid demand. - The spot prices in Shandong and Henan were 1,710 - 1,740 yuan/ton, lower than the futures closing price. After some enterprises reduced prices to attract orders, the transaction improved, but logistics was partially blocked due to snow and rain. [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - Inventory reduction and demand recovery provide bottom support, but high operating rates and low spot prices limit the upward space of futures prices. The market will fluctuate within a range in the short term. It is necessary to track the sustainability of enterprise inventory reduction, whether the compound fertilizer operating rate can exceed 45%, and the dynamics of export policies. [6]