棕榈油期货日报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The P2605 contract of palm oil futures may show a range - bound oscillation. The price is slightly supported by the spot market, but the high - inventory pattern remains unchanged, limiting its upward momentum. If the edible and industrial demand increases, it may drive inventory reduction; if consumption remains weak, the price may face downward pressure [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract P2605 was 8,944 yuan/ton, up 1.59% from the previous trading day. The opening price was 8,850 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,964 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8,850 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 502,993 lots, the open interest was 467,244 lots, and the trading volume was 44.837 billion yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The basis value was 66 yuan/ton, and the spot reference price was 9,010 yuan/ton (the national average price of 24 - degree palm oil). The basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day [4] 3.3 Influencing Factors - Malaysian production declined seasonally. From January 1st to 20th, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, with a 16.49% drop in the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area and a slight increase of 0.08% in the oil extraction rate. The production reduction trend in major production areas continued, supporting the market's expectation of supply tightening [5] - Export data improved significantly. From January 1st to 20th, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 8.64% - 11.4% month - on - month. The rebound in exports reflected the enhanced pre - festival stocking demand of major importers such as India and China, and the expectation of inventory reduction increased [6] - The domestic inventory was at a high level but marginally eased. As of January 21st, 2026, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 776,000 tons, a slight increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week and still 310,000 tons higher year - on - year. However, the inventory growth rate slowed down. Coupled with the narrowing of the import cost inversion (the landed duty - paid cost of 24 - degree palm oil in South China was 8,880 - 8,940 yuan/ton), the spot pressure was relieved [6]