集运指数（欧线）：现货跌价或压制地缘炒作高度，震荡市

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of the Container Freight Index (European Line) is in a clear downward channel this week, and the further decline in spot prices may suppress the height of geopolitical sentiment speculation in the market. The market is expected to be in a volatile situation in the medium - term [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures Information: - EC2602 closed at 1,726.7, up 0.76%, with a trading volume of 565 and an open interest of 4,225, a decrease of 176. The trading volume to open - interest ratio was 0.13 [1]. - EC2604 closed at 1,200.2, up 5.46%, with a trading volume of 43,172 and an open interest of 41,690, an increase of 541. The trading volume to open - interest ratio was 1.04 [1]. - EC2606 closed at 1,447.6, up 3.47%, with a trading volume of 4,483 and an open interest of 7,324, an increase of 1,533. The trading volume to open - interest ratio was 0.61 [1]. - Freight Rate Index: - The SCFIS European route index on January 26, 2026, was 1,859.31 points, down 4.9% week - on - week [1]. - The SCFIS US West route index was 1,294.32 points, down 0.8% week - on - week [1]. - The SCFI European route index was 1,595 $/TEU, down 4.8% bi - weekly [1]. - The SCFI US West route index was 2,084 $/FEU, down 5.0% bi - weekly [1]. - Spot Freight Rates: Different carriers' spot freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam vary, with prices for $/40'GP ranging from 2,030 to 2,593 and for $/20'GP ranging from 1,275 to 1,615 [1]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 97.04, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.95 [1]. [Macro News] - A new round of tri - party talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia may be held on February 1 [10]. - US President Trump said the situation in Iran is "changing rapidly" and he sent a "huge fleet" to the region, but he thinks Iran wants to reach an agreement [10]. - The US fully agrees with Israel's statement that the reconstruction of Gaza will not start until Hamas is demilitarized and disarmed [10]. - Hamas demands that Israel fully implement the cease - fire agreement [10]. - Iran warns the US that it will attack US aircraft carriers if it suffers a military strike [10]. [Supply Side] - The weekly average capacity in February was revised down from 28.1 to 27.3 million TEU/week, and in March, it was revised up from 29.5 to 29.9 million TEU/week [12]. - After adjustments, the overall capacity during the Spring Festival in 2026 (weeks 8 - 10) decreased slightly, and after the Spring Festival (weeks 11 - 13) remained unchanged. The average capacities in weeks 8 - 10 and 11 - 13 were 22.8 and 32.1 million TEU/week respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 6.3% and 25.8% [12]. [Spot Freight Rates] - The FAK average in the 4th week was around 2,600 $/FEU, and in the 5th week, the FAK center dropped 250 to around 2,350 $/FEU [13]. - Different alliances and carriers have different FAK price ranges in the 6th week or at the end of the month [13]. [Contract Analysis] - 2602 Contract: It is expected to oscillate in a narrow range between 1,700 - 1,750 points [13]. - 2604 Contract: In the short - term, it is recommended to gradually reduce short positions next week and wait. In the long - term, consider shorting at high prices after the GRI bullish expectations are exhausted [14]. - 2606 Contract: It is recommended to treat it with a wide - range oscillation strategy and trade with a light position [14]. - 2610 Contract: Hold short positions as appropriate and pay attention to the peace negotiations in Gaza and the geopolitical situation in Iran [14]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of the Container Freight Index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15].