招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes multiple commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black commodities, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each market, with the overall view that most markets are expected to show a wide - range of fluctuations in the short term, and specific trading strategies vary according to different market conditions [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Market Performance: On Monday, precious metals continued to rise. London gold reached $5000 per ounce, and London silver reached $117 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: In the US, durable goods orders in November increased by 5.3% compared to the previous month (expected increase of 4%). The probability of the US government shutting down again before January 31 has soared to nearly 80%. Domestic gold ETFs had a large inflow of 3.7 tons. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 6.3 tons to 1117.8 tons; SHFE gold inventory increased by 1 ton to 103.0 tons; SPDR gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1086.5 tons. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 36.8 tons to 12914 tons; SHFE silver inventory decreased by 7.3 tons to 573.8 tons; iShares silver ETF holdings decreased by 115.6 tons to 15974.4 tons; the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory last week decreased by 105 tons to 506 tons; London's silver inventory at the end of December increased from 27183 tons to 27814 tons; India imported about 750 tons of silver in November (imports in October were revised to 1898 tons) [1]. - Trading Strategy: Due to Trump's policy changes leading to the selling of US Treasuries, the gold price is rising steadily, so it is recommended to go long. For silver, the speculative sentiment is strong, the inventory shortage in the London area is gradually easing, and the domestic speculative sentiment is high. It is recommended to participate with caution [1]. Base Metals - Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.31% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 24215 yuan per ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 430 yuan per ton. The LME price was $3190 per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. On the demand side, the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: There is an expectation of a weakening downstream operating rate, inventory continues to accumulate, and overseas new production capacity expectations are gradually being realized. The pre - holiday market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, leading to a contraction in speculative buying. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [2]. - Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract increased by 0.29% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2732 yuan per ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 97 yuan per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, some alumina plants entered the production - reduction and maintenance stage. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: There are short - term fluctuations in supply, and the price has rebounded at a low valuation. However, the oversupply pattern has not changed, and the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile trend in the short term, and the movement of the main funds should be followed [2]. - Zinc and Lead - Market Performance: On the 1st day session, the main zinc and lead contracts closed at 24725 yuan per ton and 17070 yuan per ton respectively, increasing by 140 yuan and decreasing by 25 yuan compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 150 yuan per ton and - 105 yuan per ton respectively, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 32.62 and - 44.556 US dollars per ton respectively. Zinc's seven - region inventory on January 26 was 11.68 million tons, a decrease of 0.20 million tons compared to January 22; lead's five - region inventory on January 26 was 3.52 million tons, an increase of 0.07 million tons compared to January 22 [2]. - Fundamentals: The lead market shows a pattern of narrowing supply and weak consumption. The negative profit of secondary lead has led to production cuts, but the downstream consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weak, and the Spring Festival inventory - building demand is limited. The social inventory of lead ingots has increased to 3.45 million tons, putting pressure on the lead price. In the zinc market, supply - side disturbances have increased, and some smelters' maintenance has led to reduced arrivals. However, downstream procurement is cautious in the off - season, and the operating rates of galvanizing and die - casting enterprises are fluctuating. The seven - region zinc ingot inventory remains at a high level of 11.88 million tons, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level [3]. - Trading Strategy: The positive sentiment in the non - ferrous sector has not dissipated. Overall, it is advisable to buy on dips or wait and see [3]. - Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Monday, the market opened flat and rose slightly throughout the day. The main 05 contract closed at 8915 yuan per ton, an increase of 95 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 1.08%. The trading volume increased by 20873 lots to 252300 lots. The variety's settled funds increased by 239 million yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 144 lots to 13115 lots [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces this week decreased by 3 compared to last week, mainly due to the reduction in Sichuan. Social inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly this week. On the demand side, both the polysilicon and silicone industries are promoting anti - involution. The polysilicon production in January is expected to decline to 100,000 tons. The silicone industry is holding up prices, and the weekly production has continued to decrease slightly. The aluminum alloy operating rate has remained stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: Currently, there are continuous rumors of production cuts in the northwest on the supply side, but the duration of the cuts is still uncertain. On the demand side, the production - cut expectations for polysilicon and silicone still exist. The market is more concerned about the actual production - cut situation of large enterprises this week. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan, and it is advisable to go short lightly on rallies [3]. - Polycrystalline Silicon - Market Performance: On Monday, the market rose rapidly by nearly 3% after opening and then oscillated slightly throughout the day. The main 05 contract closed at 51280 yuan per ton, an increase of 560 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 1.1%. The trading volume decreased by 1 lot to 41290 lots. The variety's settled funds increased by 51 million yuan to 3.533 billion yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts remained at 6850 lots [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly production decreased by nearly 10%, and the industry inventory increased slightly this week. The number of warehouse receipts increased significantly this week, with a month - on - month increase of 50%. On the demand side, the production schedule of silicon wafers in January remained stable, while the production schedules of solar cells and components decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. The export of components in April - May increased by 10% year - on - year. The cancellation of the photovoltaic export tax - rebate policy on the 9th has a certain supporting effect on the component export during the window period, and the demand side is expected to be stable in the off - season [3]. - Trading Strategy: After the "anti - monopoly" event interview, the futures price has fully reflected the negative news. The near - term balance sheet has shifted from a loose to a tight supply - demand balance. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the emotional impact brought by the subsequent feedback of industry associations on this interview event. In the short term, the main contract is expected to oscillate between 48000 - 53000 yuan [3]. - Tin - Market Performance: The tin price rose and then fell yesterday [3]. - Fundamentals: The exchange restricted the trading limit of tin futures yesterday, causing the tin price to rise and then fall. On the supply side, the shortage pattern of tin ore continues, and the tin ore production in Wa State is gradually recovering. The Indonesian exchange has started to have tin export - related trading volumes. The domestic warehouse receipts increased by 42 tons, and the premium of deliverable brands is 700 yuan. The London structure is at a contango of 350 US dollars [3]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for now and wait for a low - price buying opportunity [3]. Black Industry - Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3144 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: According to the Gangyin data, the building material inventory increased by 5.2% month - on - month to 3.16 million tons (last week's increase was 1.4%). The rebar shipment in Hangzhou on the weekend was 68,000 tons (72,000 tons last week); the inventory was 492,000 tons (488,000 tons last week, 640,000 tons in the same period last year). The supply and demand of steel are neutral, and the structural differentiation is still significant. The demand for building materials remains weak year - on - year, but fortunately, the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year, so the contradiction is limited; the demand for plates is stable, direct and indirect exports remain high, the inventory level is still high, but the marginal change in inventory is at its strongest level in the same period in history. Steel mills are continuously making losses, and the room for production increase is limited. In terms of valuation, the spot steel market was relatively weak last week, and the futures valuation is neutral. It is expected that the steel futures and spot markets will fluctuate widely in the short term [4][5]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term shorting of the rebar 2605 contract. The reference range for RB05 is 3110 - 3170 yuan [5]. - Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 789 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by 1.48 million tons month - on - month to 23.94 million tons, an increase of 5.26 million tons year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral. According to the Ganglian data, the molten iron production remained basically unchanged month - on - month, an increase of 1.2% year - on - year. The fourth round of price cuts has been implemented, but the coking plants have proposed the first round of price increases. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production may decline slightly. The supply side conforms to the seasonal pattern and is slightly higher year - on - year. The proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory in ports and the number of days of steel mill inventory remain at the lowest levels in the same period in history. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure but is slightly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is neutral. It is expected that the iron ore futures and spot markets will fluctuate widely in the short term [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see mainly. The reference range for I05 is 780 - 810 yuan [5]. - Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1137 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: According to the Ganglian data, the molten iron production increased by 100 tons month - on - month to 2.281 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production may decline slightly. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and the first round of price increases has been proposed. On the supply side, the inventories at various links are differentiated, with high inventories at ports and mines and low inventories at other links. The overall inventory level is low. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained. The futures valuation is high. The supply and demand of coking coal are weak [5]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term shorting of the coking coal 2605 contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1110 - 1160 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal - Market Performance: The CBOT soybeans declined overnight [6]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term supply is loose; in the long - term, South America maintains a large - supply expectation. Brazil has entered the early harvest stage, but the weather in Argentina is dry. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, and exports are improving marginally. Overall, the global supply - demand is expected to be loose [6]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, US soybeans are expected to stabilize and strengthen. Pay attention to the weather market. In China, it will follow the international cost side and fluctuate in stages. Pay attention to the South American weather and customs policies [6]. - Corn - Market Performance: The corn futures oscillated narrowly, and the spot prices in some corn - producing areas increased [6]. - Fundamentals: In terms of supply and demand, the grain - selling progress has exceeded half, and the grain - selling pressure is not large. Farmers are reluctant to sell and are holding up prices. The inventories at north - south ports, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are lower than in previous years. Northeast deep - processing enterprises have a high enthusiasm for building inventories. Southern regions prefer to import due to the high cost - effectiveness of imported grains. The short - term spot price is expected to follow the northern regions and strengthen. Pay attention to weather and policy changes [6]. - Trading Strategy: The supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. - Oils and Fats - Market Performance: The Malaysian market rose yesterday [6]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the MPOA estimates that the Malaysian production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14% month - on - month, which is in the seasonal production - reduction period. On the demand side, exports improved month - on - month. The high - frequency ITS data shows that the Malaysian exports from January 1 - 25 increased by 10% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term supply is loose, and the long - term supply is in the seasonal production - reduction period [6]. - Trading Strategy: Oils and fats are expected to strengthen in stages, trading on the weak current situation and strong expectations, and the reverse - spread will continue. In the medium term, pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [6]. - Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5170 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.1%. The basis between the Nanning spot and the Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract is 100 yuan per ton. The estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar after tax with out - of - quota imports is 323 yuan per ton [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the sugar - alcohol price difference has widened by 2 cents again and is still expanding. There is an expectation of reducing the sugar - alcohol ratio in the next season. Continuously observe the growth of Brazilian sugarcane and the impact of the sugar - alcohol price difference on the next season's Brazilian production. Currently, it is still in an oscillating pattern. Domestically, the overall sales - production progress this year is slow. New sugar is mainly stored in warehouses, and the future spot pressure is greater. SR05 is priced by imports and domestic production. The import volume in December adds pressure again, and the fundamentals are bearish, but beware of the risk of state - reserve purchases due to macro policies [8]. - Trading Strategy: Close short positions and wait and see mainly [8]. - Cotton - Market Performance: The ICE US cotton futures price declined significantly overnight. The international crude oil oscillated narrowly,