格林大华期货早盘提示-20260126

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The global economy has passed its peak and is moving downward due to continuous wrong - policies in the US [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Economic News - Musk said SpaceX hopes to achieve full rocket reusability this year, reducing space access cost by 100 times to under $100 per pound [1][2] - SpaceX plans to launch the second - generation cellular Starlink system in 2027, with capacity over 100 times and data throughput over 20 times higher than the current one, after technical preparations [1] - Musk discussed plans to launch solar AI satellites in the next few years, stating that space is the cheapest place for AI deployment and it could be realized in 2 - 3 years [1] - The limiting factor for AI deployment is energy. AI chip production grows exponentially, but power supply only grows 4 - 5% annually, except in China [1] - Musk said a 100 - mile - square solar panel area could power the US, and SpaceX and Tesla aim to build 100 GW solar manufacturing capacity in the US in about three years [1] - Fudan University released fiber chips, which may break through bottlenecks in the brain - machine interface field [1] - A $280 - million trading volume pushed Japan's $72 - trillion treasury bond market to the verge of collapse [1] - The US President said he would "strongly retaliate" if European countries sell US assets in response to tariff threats [1] 3.2 Global Economic Logic - The US's actions like trying to control Venezuelan oil and buying Greenland bring great uncertainty to the global economy [2] - The US prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, with expected uncertainty from July to November 2026 and a possible "flight from US assets" [2] - The Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, buy $40 billion short - term bonds monthly, and expand its balance sheet [2] - High - end consumer spending in the US remains resilient, but middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2.30% [2] - TSMC's 2026 capital expenditure is estimated to be $52 - 56 billion, a significant increase of 27 - 37% year - on - year, signaling a continued AI boom [2] 3.3 Impact of US Policy - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes [3]