PP：C3原料表现偏强，利润暂修复有限

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The C3 raw material for PP shows strong performance, but the profit repair is currently limited. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units under deep - loss PDH profits [1][2] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of PP2605 was 6737, with a daily increase of 1.22%. The trading volume was 609,818, and the position increased by 22,199 [1] - Basis and Spread Changes: The basis of the 05 contract was - 147 (compared to - 176 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 41 (compared to - 32 the previous day) [1] - Spot Prices: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,530 yuan/ton, 6,590 yuan/ton, and 6,630 yuan/ton respectively, all higher than the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures market rebounded again. The upstream pre - sale pressure was temporarily not large, and the mid - stream continued to place orders. The basis weakened, and the trading atmosphere improved, mainly mid - stream transactions [1] - The downstream profit has been repaired with the terminal price increase. The start - up and orders increased last week, but the end - year demand is difficult to provide continuous elasticity, and the sustainability of buying is questionable, with high warehouse receipts [1] - The PP US - dollar market price remained stable. Overseas suppliers had low enthusiasm for offering to China. Due to the strengthening of the exchange rate and the rise of the domestic market, the downstream continued to make rigid purchases, and the trading was difficult to improve [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Cost Side: Crude oil and propane prices are strong. The internal valuation of olefins is differentiated, and the valuation of PE in terms of internal - external and upstream profit is higher than that of PP [2] - Supply Side: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game of existing supply and demand intensifies [2] - Demand Side: The follow - up of new downstream orders weakened, and downstream factories' purchases remained cautious, resulting in weak demand [2] 3.4 Trend Strength - The trend strength of PP is - 1 [3]