国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20260127

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it offers trend intensity ratings for individual commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment judgments. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with -1 indicating a weak bearish trend, 0 indicating a neutral trend, and 1 indicating a weak bullish trend. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. It presents the latest market data, macro and industry news, and offers trend forecasts and trading suggestions for each commodity. The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and macro - economic policies, showing different trends and characteristics. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: Reached a new high. Comex gold 2602 had a 2.11% increase. Gold trend intensity is 1 [5]. - Silver: Approaching 100. Comex silver 2602 rose 3.51%. Silver trend intensity is 1 [5]. - Platinum: Followed the correction of gold and silver, but the trend did not reverse. Platinum trend intensity is 1 [26]. - Palladium: Looking for a bottom and then continuing the trend. Palladium trend intensity is 1 [26]. Base Metals - Copper: With the US dollar under pressure, the price was on the strong side. Trend intensity is 1 [10]. - Zinc: Showed a volatile and slightly upward trend. Trend intensity is 1 [13]. - Lead: Supported by the decrease in LME inventory. Trend intensity is 0 [16]. - Tin: Traded in a range. Trend intensity is 0 [18]. - Aluminum: Oscillated around 24,000. Aluminum trend intensity is 1; Alumina trended weakly, with an intensity of 0; Casting aluminum alloy fluctuated at a high level, with an intensity of 1 [22]. - Nickel: The situation in Indonesia was uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. Trend intensity is 0 [31]. - Stainless Steel: Concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia intensified, and the rise of ferronickel supported the price center. Trend intensity is 0 [31]. Energy - Crude Oil - Related: Although not directly mentioned in detail, it affected related products. For example, the price of PX was affected by the movement of upstream crude oil and naphtha prices [67]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Traded in a range, affected by industry and capital factors. Trend intensity for both is 0 [55][56]. - Power Coal: Supply and demand tended to be weak, and the coal price stabilized with a slight upward exploration. [59] - Fuel Oil: The night - session opened lower, maintaining a high - volatility trend. Trend intensity is - 1. Low - sulfur fuel oil mainly followed the upward trend, with the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market reaching a low for the year. Trend intensity is - 1 [107]. Chemicals - P - Xylene (PX): Supply was recovering, with a strong unilateral trend and a reverse spread in the month - spread. Trend intensity is 0 [64]. - PTA: Had a strong unilateral trend. Trend intensity is 0 [64]. - MEG: The trend remained strong. Trend intensity is 0 [64]. - Rubber: Traded in a range. Trend intensity is 0 [74]. - LLDPE: The US dollar offers were scarce, and upstream quotes were rising. Trend intensity is - 1 [77]. - PP: The C3 raw material was strong, but profit repair was limited. Trend intensity is - 1 [80]. - Paper Pulp: Traded in a range. Trend intensity is 0 [83]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet was stable. Trend intensity is - 1 [88]. - Styrene: Traded in a strong - side oscillation. Trend intensity is 0 [92]. - Soda Ash: The spot market changed little. Trend intensity is - 1 [95]. - LPG: Affected by short - term geopolitical factors. Trend intensity is 0. Propylene had strong demand support, and the spot price rose strongly. Trend intensity is 1 [98]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by multiple factors, traded in a high - level oscillation. Trend intensity is 0 [120]. - Soybean Oil: With the upcoming implementation of the US 45Z subsidy, the oil - meal ratio was rising. Trend intensity is 0 [120]. - Soybean Meal: After the overnight decline of US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal might follow the adjustment. Trend intensity is - 1 [125]. - Soybean: The spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price adjusted and oscillated. Trend intensity is 0 [125]. - Corn: Traded in a slightly upward oscillation. Trend intensity is 1 [128]. - Sugar: Traded in a low - level consolidation. Trend intensity is 0 [132]. - Cotton: Consolidated and awaited new drivers. Trend intensity is 1 [137]. - Eggs: The spot price was strong during the pre - holiday peak season. Trend intensity is 0 [143]. - Hogs: The peak - season demand was lower than expected, and supply contradictions emerged. Trend intensity is - 2 [146]. - Peanuts: Traded in a range. Trend intensity is 0 [150].